NBA Finals Odds: Why You Should Bet Warriors To Win Title Before Series Starts
Golden State is -150 at multiple shops
The Boston Celtics are going to lose the NBA Finals.
I would love to be wrong about this prediction so that hundreds of thousands of fans can line the streets of this amazing city and celebrate the Celtics' 18th world championship. But I care about your money, so we're going the other way and betting on the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State has reached basketball's pinnacle yet again thanks to a 14-4 playoff record and its "Big Three" of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. They possess a championship pedigree that you simply cannot underestimate. They've performed on this stage and excelled on this stage.
The Dubs are also a perfect 9-0 at Chase Center this postseason -- they'll host Game 7 if necessary -- and they've won a road game in 26 straight series. That's bad mathematics for Boston, which comes into this game after fighting tooth and nail with the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat for 14 straight battles.
Fatigue will be a factor and Golden State is the last team you want to face with the gas light illuminated.
Most American sportsbooks opened the Warriors as a 3-point favorite in Game 1 on Thursday night with a total of 210.5. To no surprise, early money showed for Golden State and the "Over," so the market is mostly painted -3.5 and O/U 211.5 with over two days until the NBA Finals tips off.
Golden State is a consensus -165 moneyline favorite, which is 15 cents richer than most series prices.
NBA Finals series prices:
GS -150 at Circa ($150 wins $100)
GS -150 at DraftKings
GS -150 at PointsBet
GS -155 at Caesars
GS -155 at FanDuel
GS -155 at WynnBET
GS -160 at BetMGM
GS -170 at SuperBook ($170 wins $100)
Thing is, Warriors stock will rise like a phoenix assuming they take care of business the way they have at home literally all postseason. If Golden State wins the first two ballgames, that -150 will prove to be an absolute bargain considering where the series price could run if the Dubs lead 2-0.
"We'll move to the -275 range if the Warriors win Game 1," Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told NESN. "Obviously, it'll go a lot higher if they win both."
I'm guessing we see around a Warriors -400 / Celtics +325 split if that comes to fruition.
The C's ascension from 25-25 in late January to four wins away from a Larry O'Brien Trophy is a truly incredible story. Not many souls predicted such second-half dominance and a "Game of Thrones"-esque run through Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Miami to avenge Boston's last three postseason exits.
I just don't think there's enough fuel in the tank to complete the mission.
Putting a Warriors (-150) title ticket in your back pocket is the move to make. I expect them to win Games 1 and 2 and send this already-hobbled Celtics team back home down 0-2. That would give you an opportunity to buy back some Celtics at +300 or higher if you wish.
Golden State is deeper, healthier and more talented than any team Boston has faced in months.
There's no need to overthink it.
Warriors win NBA Finals -150
RECORD: (116-113, +30.9)
