Stanley Cup Final Great Example Of How Live Betting Can Be Profitable
Sometimes, you have to wait a bit to find the number you like
Live betting is a market that not enough novice bettors take advantage of.
If there is a play or a team you like but you don?t find value in their pregame odds, live betting has the potential to fix that. While a blowout is always possible (thus leading to even worse odds for the pregame favorite), in-play betting can lead to a nice payout in a back-and-forth type game. That sort of game script can be especially true in the playoffs when you have two top teams as we have in the Stanley Cup Final.
Before we get into in-game betting, let?s take a second to understand value in the series line movement. The Colorado Avalanche opened this series as -180 favorites and jumped to -270 after winning Game 1. A 2-0 series lead caused them to jump to -600 favorites. On the ?Ultimate Betting Show? (which airs every weekday at 5:30 on NESN), we always talk about not chasing bad numbers and the importance of keeping an eye on the market.
These series price changes are a perfect example of that. If you liked Tampa heading into this series, you could get a decent price at +150. With two games on the road, there?s a chance to get a better price if they go down a game or two in the series. Before even playing a home game, the Lightning were +500 underdogs.
Live betting is very different from series betting, but the ability to watch the market change in real-time makes it a similar concept.
Bookmakers set the lines for Game 4 as a ?pick'em.? Both the Avalanche and Lightning were lined at -110 to win the game (risk $110 to win $100). Well, that all changed 36 seconds into the game, when Lightning center Anthony Cirelli scored a goal. That one goal made the Lightning -210 in-game favorites while the Avalanche became +170 dogs. The Lightning moved an entire dollar on one early goal and the Avs entered the value range.
Of course, if you liked Tampa pregame, you?d then be chasing a bad in-game number at -210 after the early goal. However, waiting to bet the Avs ? the series favorite ? in that game would have given you a +170 price just 36 seconds into the game. That?s how you identify value.
Live handicapping isn?t much different from regular handicapping. You still want to use the eye test to identify the stronger, faster, more physical team. You also want to look at statistics, particularly with defense and scoring opportunities. After just one period Tampa outshot Colorado 16-4. It?s worth noting, though, Tampa blocked 12 shots to the Avs? six, so there were more attempts from the Avs than the shots on goal that the box score showed. The Avs also had more hits than Colorado in the first period (16-11).
The Avs were playing physically and the shot attempts were there. The shots on goal likely would come around, too, as the Avs outshot the Lightning 107-72 through the first three games.
Knowing all of that, I figured they would heat up in the following periods. It made the Avs live price of +170 very enticing. In the end, the final shot count favored Tampa Bay ? but only by one shot (39-38). I ended up sweating an overtime win (but a win nonetheless), cashing a nice underdog ticket at +170.
The bottom line: If you have faith in a team to come back from any deficit, check out their in-game price. Colorado was as high as +250 at one shop. An interesting factor of live betting is most books have a computer system generating the live lines. Would a live bookmaker have made the Lighting such a heavy favorite as the computer system did after an early goal like that? Probably not, which is where I saw the edge in getting the Avs at +170.
Moving forward to Game 5, the Avs head home as -170 favorites with the Lighting priced at +142. Honestly, -170 is a decent price for the team that is now a -1250 favorite to win the Cup. However, if you don?t want to take a side pregame -- keep in-game wagering in mind. If you like the Avs to win but think Tampa may get a lead or keep it close -- you?ll get Colorado at a cheaper price live.
Even if you?re not putting any money down yet, it?s a good idea to just watch the live lines change so you can see how the market moves as the game does. It might not result in cold hard cash but you know what they say: ?Knowledge is wealth.?
Plus, you may find yourself in a position to guarantee profit after making your first live bet ? but that's a conversation for another time.
