The beautiful Chavez Ravine site of Dodger Stadium will play host to this year’s Home Run Derby. The field is star-studded with three of the best pure hitters in Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, and Jose Ramirez, all eyeing Pete Alonso’s crown. As for Alonso, he is on a mission to join the legendary Ken Griffey Jr. as the only three-time Home Run Derby Winner. However, Alonso can set himself apart from Griffey and become the only player to win three in a row.
So will we have a three-Pete? Or will a new champion be crowned?
The Case for Three-Pete AlonsoThe New York Mets slugger has had a tremendous first half as he’ll enter this year’s All-Star break with 24 homers. Alonso is built for the Home Run Derby, both physically and stylistically. Standing at 6’3′” and 245 pounds, the All-Star is a powerful man who consistently hits the ball hard.
He’s in the top two percent among all Major League hitters in max exit velocity and the top ten percent in barrel rate. Alonso also has tremendous power on the pull side, which will help him in this ballpark.
Dodger Stadium is not very deep in left field, and the fence is only four feet tall when you get close to the foul pole. Historically, LA’s home park has been a place where righties get a boost on balls hit to left field. Alonso has pulled the ball 46.1 percent of the time this season, which is the highest rate of his career.
Another advantage the first baseman will have is the familiarity and skill of the pitcher throwing to him. Dave Jauss (an advisor with the Washington Nationals) was the Mets bench coach when Alonso arrived in Flushing. Jauss would throw Mets batting practice nearly every day, so the former Florida Gator was familiar with him before entering the past two Home Run Derbies. Jauss’s accuracy and the chemistry between the two paid off as Alonso has blown the field away for the past two competitions. You can see just how accurate Jauss is below.
Home Run Derby Odds @FanDuelI found this graphic to be quite remarkable. Here is the pitch spray from Alonso?s first round from BP pitcher Dave Jauss. Pretty impressive! pic.twitter.com/FkLStSyre8
— Adam Law (@adamlaw217) July 13, 2021
- Pete Alonso +185
- Kyle Schwarber +280
- Juan Soto +600
- Ronald Acuna Jr. +750
- Julio Rodriguez +850
- Corey Seager +1000
- Jose Ramirez +1600
- Albert Pujols +2400
With all this factored in, it’s hard not to side with Alonso here. The betting market has also taken its stance. Alonso opened earlier this week as a +300 favorite, but his odds have dropped to as low as +185 at some books. So be sure to shop around and find the best price as we root for a Three-Pete on Monday night.
