We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Angels, Reds
The Los Angeles Angels’ team stack is at the top of the leverage board as they face an uphill battle tonight against Cristian Javier and the loaded Houston Astros’ bullpen. Given their unfavorable matchup, we are projecting the Angels’ stack to be minimally owned, which makes the leverage we see entirely justified. The Angels’ offense is absolutely brutal right now. In July, they ranked 30th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They have struck out at a staggering 33.3% clip and have had a team batting average of .171.
Javier has already faced the Angels three times this year, and over a combined 12.1 innings pitched, he has allowed only six hits and a lone run to go with 21 strikeouts. He has been dominant all season and should not have much difficulty given the garbage the Angels have been trotting out. Avoiding the Angels stack altogether despite the enticing leverage we are seeing is the more competent play to make as Javier has dominated the Angels all season, and their offense has been at a standstill.
How about the Cincinnati Reds? Fresh off a thrilling ninth-inning comeback in the Bronx to topple the New York Yankees, they look to extend their winning streak to six games tonight against Luis Severino. That seems pretty inexplicable back when the same team managed to lose a game where their pitching staff threw a combined no-hitter. Over the past week, the Reds are in the top half of baseball in ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored, which may not be the best numbers, but are a welcomed sight for a directionless club.
They’ll have their work cut out for them against Severino as he has an xERA and xFIP around 3.00 with high strikeout production to go with it. The strikeout production of Severino could spell trouble for Cincinnati as the Reds have struck out at the second highest mark in baseball in July at 30.7%. The Reds’ stack will be minimally owned and at an affordable price, but it is hard to put your faith in a dreadful baseball team to knock off goliath two nights in a row. It would be a fun play to make and root for if you are a fan of a good underdog story.
