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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Dodgers, Braves
There’s nothing like a dominant offense playing in Coors Field to influence a DFS slate. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain in Colorado tonight after a 13-0 annihilation of the Rockies with Chad Kuhl taking the mound. The Dodgers’ offense has been spectacular all season and hasn’t slowed down in July, ranking first in wOBA and wRC+ and second in ISO. Strikeouts are not an issue with this club as they strike out at a bottom ten clip on the season and have limited that to a bottom six clip for July.
Kuhl does not offer much opposition for the Dodgers, but Kukl’s best start of the season (by far) was a complete game shutout against the Dodgers in Coors. Kuhl has not come close to replicating that performance, so it is safe to label that outing as an outlier. Nonetheless, his xERA and xFIP approach 5.00, and strikeout-wise he has a measly rate of 16.8% on the year. This stack has our highest optimal probability, will be the most expensive, and will see significant ownership. If you are willing to fade the public in a big way tonight, you should have some confidence in the Dodgers’ ability to produce a good chunk of runs.
The Atlanta Braves are a distant second behind the Dodgers at the top of the optimal board ahead of their matchup against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. At this point in his career, Bumgarner is just a rotational piece and a body in a rotation. His strikeout rate and WHIP are at the second lowest points of his career, and his xERA and xFIP approach 5.00. It is not a matter of if Bumgarner will give up runs but how much he’ll give up.
Atlanta’s offense has been great, consistently ranking in the top 10 in ISO, wOBA, and ISO. The Braves have had difficulties with accumulating strikeouts, as they’ve struck out at the third highest clip, so facing a guy like Bumgarner can only elevate their offense. The Braves’ stack is priced comparably to what we have seen for them throughout the year, so if you are looking to stay away from the mess that the Dodgers’ stack is causing, this is a high upside play as a pivot.
