Maryland Terrapins Season Breakdown

2021 Record: 7-6 (3-6); Big Ten Finish: 5th in B1G East

AP Poll: No. NR | Coaches Poll: No. NR | PFF: No. 52 | SP+: No. 54

Head Coach: Mike Locksley (5th Season) 13-23 (9-7) | Overall: 15-49

Co-Offensive Coordinator: Dan Enos (2nd Season) | Mike Miller (1st Season/4th w/ UM)

Defensive Coordinator: Brian Williams (1st Season)

National Championship Odds: +30000

Win 10 Games: +6000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 5.5 -230 | UNDER 5.5 +180

Origin of Optimism: An offense that could be the best in the B1G after OSU and Michigan.

Cause for Concern: A defense ranked outside the top 75 in EPA per pass and run allowed.

Breakout Player: RB Colby McDonald, Sophomore

It’s a disappointing 2022 if the Terps miss out on a bowl for the fifth time in six years.

It’s a successful 2022 if they turn in back-to-back winning seasons (first since 2013-14).

X-Factor: The health of potentially dynamic edge rusher senior Durell Nchami.

The Terps face five teams ranked 80th or lower in SP+, the type of opponents they’ve been known to handle (7-0 in 2021 vs. teams with a losing record). However, they were 0-6 vs. teams who finished with a winning record, and there are seven such games on this year’s docket. In addition to the Big 4 of the East, Maryland gets Wisconsin and Purdue from the B1G West, plus SMU as part of the out-of-conference slate.

They have a productive quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa, who will be surrounded by talent and experience. Four starters return along the offensive line, including a pair of highly graded tackles. Rakim Jarrett is a rising star at receiver, WR1 Dontay Demus Jr., and the explosive Jeshaun Jones return from injuries, while they added Florida’s top receiver Jacob Copeland via the portal. As a freshman, Colby McDonald averaged 5.4 yards per rush and will take advantage when defenses overplay the pass.

The Terps didn’t just beat bad teams and lose to good ones; they won big (40-17 on average) and lost even bigger (47-17), which is something to monitor when betting their games (and team totals) throughout the season.

Let’s assume they take care of business against the teams they should (five wins) and lose to OSU (0-7), Michigan (1-9), PSU (3-41-1), and Wisconsin (0-3). That means it will come down to the remaining three games on their schedule: SMU, Michigan State, and Purdue. Can they win one? The good news about the schedule is that three of the four most formidable foes (all top 20 SP+) are on the road (probably losing to them even at home), while their three toss-up games are all at home. It sets them up to go over.

SMU, Michigan State, and Purdue all project to have winning seasons but the Mustangs and Boilermakers sit outside the SP+ top 30. Moreover, Purdue gets the Terps in between key division games, MSU has OSU the next week, and SMU plays their former coach and hated rival (TCU) the following week. The Terps get at least one and should win six or seven games in 2022.

The Pick

Maryland Terrapins OVER 5.5 (-230)