We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Astros, Rockies
The Houston Astros’ team stack looks to be at the top of our optimal board ahead of their matchup against Adam Oller and the Oakland Athletics. Adam Oller re-transitioned to the starting rotation from the bullpen after the All-Star break and has not been great, collecting a 6.10 ERA over four starts. Overall, he has a strikeout percentage that doesn’t even reach 14% while having a high BB% of 11.5%, giving him one of the worst ratios in baseball. He has struggled mightily giving up power as he has collected a 2.47 allowed HR/9 this season.
The Astros have been one of baseball’s best offenses, but they have fallen into a slump to start August. They have been outside the bottom ten in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ thus far while still holding strong in their limited strikeout rate. Oller faced Houston in two of his last four starts, allowing six earned runs over a combined nine and a third innings. We do not see the Astros expected to be overly owned, and we don’t even expect this stack to crack 10% while being priced reasonably. Taking a chance on a dominant offense to break their cold spell against a lousy pitcher is a high-floor play to make without sacrificing much in terms of ownership.
The Colorado Rockies’ team stack is right behind the Astros as they remain in Coors and face off against Zach Davies and the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. Colorado has been on a roll over the past few days as they scored 29 runs over their past three games against St. Louis. Yes, playing in Coors certainly helps, but 29 runs are still 29 runs; altitude can’t help that much. They have ranked in the top ten in wOBA and wRC+ for August, so they are swinging the bats well regardless of where they are playing.
Davies isn’t an overpowering pitcher, but he has dominated the Rockies twice this season. While both games were not in Coors, over a combined 11.1 innings, Davies did not allow a single run. He is coming into tonight confident because one of those two starts was his most recent outing. This situation is tricky as we have an average pitcher throwing in the least favorable pitching ballpark in baseball against a team he has dominated this season. Picking a side here is difficult, so fading the Coors game or limiting your Coors exposure might be the safer play. A better way of looking at it could be whether or not you expect a pitcher of Davies’s caliber to have back-to-back scoreless outings.
