We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
TEAM STACK SEEING THE MOST LEVERAGE: BLUE JAYS
The Toronto Blue Jays’ team stack is top of the leverage board in their matchup against Jameson Taillon and the New York Yankees. Taillon isn’t special, but he is still a reliable arm in the Yankees’ rotation. His expected ERA and FIP hover around 4.00 and are comparable to his actuals, but he struggles with power as his allowed HR/9 is ninth worst in baseball among all qualified pitchers. Taillon’s allowed Barrel% and HardHit% aren’t horrible, so maybe there is an opportunity down the line for Taillon to do better against the long ball.
The long ball is right up the Blue Jays’ alley even though they have not seen the production we expected coming into the season. Over the past two weeks, they have been alright as their wOBA and wRC+ are right outside the bottom ten, but we see their ISO climb to 11th, which could signal higher production. Taillon has already faced the Blue Jays four times and only allowed one homer over a combined 22 innings pitched, so maybe Taillon has the Blue Jays’ number. Nonetheless, Taillon isn’t spectacular, so banking on a high-ceiling lineup that is expected to be minimally owned could be a strong play if you have the financial flexibility.
SLUMPING YANKEES ARE IN NEED OF A BOUNCE BACK
On the other side, The New York Yankees’ team stack is also atop the leverage board as they face Kevin Gausman. The Yankees were hoping Josh Donaldson’s walk-off grand slam on Wednesday was the spark they needed, but they followed that up by getting crushed 9-2 last night, putting any confidence of a potential rebirth to bed. The Bronx “Bombers” have been atrocious over the past two weeks, ranking in the bottom five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at a 25.4% rate. With an offense this powerful, the expectation is that they will inevitably break out of the slump, but it has gone on so long that we have to see it to believe it.
Gausman is not the ideal pitcher for the Yankees to face to break the slump as he has put together a strong season. His ERA and FIP are solid as he has put together substantial strikeout numbers this year with a near 28% rate. He has limited the long ball well given his fifth-lowest allowed HR/9 ranking among all qualified, which is normally a must with any pitcher facing the Yankees. Gausman’s allowed Barrel% and HardHit% are higher than expected given those low home run numbers, so there could be some regression in store as the playoff stretch heats up. The Yankees’ stack is expected to see minimal ownership with a price tag right where we typically see it. Still, it is hard to back any team swinging the bats like the Yankees are right now, especially against a strong opponent like Gausman. However, the slump has to end eventually, and minimal ownership is minimal ownership.
