MLB DFS: Brewers, Cardinals Top Leverage Stacks for Wednesday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ team stack looks to see the most leverage on tonight’s slate ahead of their matchup against Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gonsolin has been a reliable piece of the Dodgers’ injury-riddled starting rotation this year as he has compiled the second most wins in baseball. He sports the fourth lowest ERA in MLB (min. 110 innings), but his xERA increases to roughly 3.00, although he is surrounded by some of the elite pitchers in baseball still. He limits the long ball with his allowed HardHit% and Barrel% dominant. 

The Brewers have not had a great two weeks as they have ranked in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch. We see their ISO still holding strong right outside the top ten and having top ten HardHit% and Barrel% ratings, so maybe the Brew Crew had a few bad bounces recently. They have also struggled mightily with making contact as they have been striking out at a bottom five rate which only helps Gonsolin given his low strikeout upside. The Brewers are in a leverage position seeing minimal ownership for a reason, given their recent performances and matchup. Still, if you are confident in the Brewers’ upside, the ownership and price are in a strong position to produce value.

The St. Louis Cardinals are also near the top of the team stack leverage board as they face German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies for the second time in a week tonight. In that other outing, Marquez was serviceable but nothing special as he allowed two runs over six innings. Marquez struggles to produce strikeouts overall but has a noticeable ERA and allowed power dropoffs when pitching on the road compared to Coors Field, which is entirely understandable. With about a 4.00 ERA on the road, he is a respectable but by no means an intimidating arm. 

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are certainly intimidating as they have been baseball’s best offenses over the past two weeks as they have ranked first in wOBA and wRC+ while being second in ISO. At the same time, the Cardinals have limited their strikeouts a ton to only a 19% clip which does no favors for Marquez. Seeing a reasonably priced Cardinals stack in a leverage position against a pitcher of Marquez’s caliber almost looks too good to be true, so try not to overthink this and rely on the odds of a dominant offense continuing to swing their bats well against a mediocre pitcher.