We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Cubs, Guardians
The Chicago Cubs team stack is shaping up to be the top leverage stack on the board ahead of their matchup against Jose Quintana and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs aren’t anything special offensively, but at least their offense was not decimated at the trade deadline like many expected it to be. They have been swinging the bats reasonably well for their standards lately, as, over the past two weeks, they have ranked in the top half of baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, it has not necessarily translated since they are 23rd in runs scored over the same stretch.
Tonight will be Quintana’s first time taking the mound as a St. Louis Cardinal, and he is looking to continue his respectable season. His xERA and xFIP hover around 4.00, and he does not offer much in producing strikeouts. Tonight will be the Cubs’ third time seeing Quintana, and over a combined 10.2 innings pitched, they were able to knock in four runs. Nothing to write home about, but it shows us that they see the ball well enough out of his hand to capitalize. Grabbing this affordable stack at minimal ownership is a low-risk, high-reward play to make.
The Cleveland Guardians also find themselves in an enticing leverage spot, given that they’ll be going up against the top optimal pitcher for tonight, Justin Verlander. Cleveland has been reasonably productive lately as they rank tenth and eleventh respectively in wOBA and wRC+ over the past two weeks. They do not offer much regarding a potential power upside, but they compensate for that with the season’s lowest strikeout percentage in baseball.
Justin Verlander has aged like fine wine and has been dominating at the top of the Astros’ rotation all year. He sports the league’s best ERA and has been on a tear lately where he has only allowed four earned runs over his past six starts. Verlander’s presence is the reason for the Guardians’ ownership dip. Still, there is certainly value to be had with this stack, given the price and minimal ownership if you are not a Verlander believer.
