MLB DFS: Dodgers, Rangers Top Optimal Stacks for Wednesday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ team stack takes the crown as the top optimal stack for tonight’s slate ahead of their matchup against Eric Lauer and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers have looked to cement themselves as the best team in baseball as the first team to reach 80 wins on the year. They have been one of MLB’s top offenses all year and have not slowed down as they have ranked in the top three in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks. 

The Dodgers look to win their sixth straight series tonight, with Lauer standing in their way. He is nothing special of a pitcher as his expected ERA and FIP hover in the low 4.00 range while having respectable strikeout production at a 23.5% rate. He doesn’t limit power very well, as his allowed HR/9 is the fourth worst in baseball (min. 110 innings), but his allowed HardHit% and Barrel% aren’t terrible, so maybe Lauer could see some improvement down the stretch. The Dodgers’ stack has the highest optimal probability by a decent gap, but their ownership doesn’t eclipse their optimal probability, given how expensive this stack is. If you decide to play some of the affordable arms available on this slate, playing this stack against a mediocre pitcher will give you a high-floor play with value to spare, given the slight leverage.

The Texas Rangers’ team stack is near the top of our optimal board as well as they prepare to face Adam Oller and the Oakland Athletics. Oller is the pitcher you expect to pitch for the directionless A’s as September approaches. His expected ERA and FIP both are around 6.30 while having a putrid strikeout rate of 13.5%. He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out, given his BB% being at 11.8%, while struggling mightily giving up power as his allowed HR/9 sits at 2.23. 

The Rangers offense has had an interesting week where they have ranked in the top ten in wOBA, and wRC+ with an ISO below .100 capped off with a changing of the guard at the manager. During that same stretch, they have the second highest HardHit% while only having a middle-of-the-pack Barrel% ranking. All while they also have struck out at above a 25% clip. Oller has already faced the Rangers this season, where he allowed five earned runs over five innings. This stack is dirt cheap, aiding the optimal boost, and is expected to reach 20% ownership. Adam Oller is bad enough to where all of the Rangers’ wonky statistics can have the opportunity to level out, so mixing in some of this stack can’t hurt if you back a low-owned marquee pitcher like Framber Valdez.