We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you
MONTAS LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK IN CROSS-TOWN SHOWDOWN
Frankie Montas takes the mound tonight, donning the Yankees’ pinstripes, facing the cross-town rivals in the New York Mets as the top leverage pitcher on the board. Montas has not provided the Yankees with the boost they hoped for when they acquired him at the deadline. Over three starts, he has posted a 9.00 ERA and has given us little confidence, which is a reason for his significant drop in optimal probability and expected ownership.
He has never been a guy to rack up a substantial number of strikeouts, as his K% only sits around 24%, but he has been billed as a guy to remain composed and limit power in quality outings. This form is what the Yankees desperately need for him to find again.
The Mets look to avoid the mini two-game sweep tonight, with one of baseball’s most productive offenses being tasked to lead the way as they’ll no longer have Jacob deGrom pulling the weight. Over the past two weeks, they have not necessarily been lights out at the plate, only in the top ten in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ during that stretch. They are a resilient group that certainly does not want to allow themselves to be in the position to drop two straight in the battle of New York.
Montas is priced reasonably at only $7900, and we are anticipating him to see sub-4% ownership tonight. Obviously, we have a sour taste in our mouths from the first three times we’ve witnessed Montas throw as a Yankee, but there is more in the tank as Montas is fully capable of being better. It is not a matter of when, but if, so, if you believe that tonight is the night for him to turn it around, the value is certainly there for the taking with this play.
BURNES LOOKING TO FLAME OUT MLB-BEST DODGERS
Corbin Burnes is seated right behind Montas on the leverage board for tonight’s slate as he’ll go up against the MLB-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Burnes faced off against the Dodgers in his most recent start, giving up three earned runs over 5.2 innings pitched while tallying six strikeouts. At his price, we certainly need more out of him in order to turn optimal. Burnes is not lacking the tools to be atop the optimal board at the end of the night, as he has a sub-1.00 WHIP backed up by a sub-3.00 xERA and xFIP while having a dominant 32% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers have cemented themselves as the best team in baseball and feature the league’s most consistent and dominant offense. In August, they have been in the top two in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+, and while their K% has been higher than we would like at 23% for the month, they have not let it affect their production.
Unfortunately for Burnes, last night, the Brewers shut out the Dodgers in LA for the first time this season. Do we really expect that to happen or something similar on back-to-back nights? Most likely not. The Dodgers won’t allow it, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games in nearly a month. Burnes ownership is at a spot where taking a shot on his upside is certainly warranted and understandable, but it is hard to picture a scenario where LA comes out dead again at the plate. The matchup certainly isn’t ideal, but these are the games that reigning Cy Young Award winners are expected to go out and give you a chance to win.
