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GIOLITO IN AN IDEAL SPOT TO SUCCEED
Lucas Giolito finds himself high up on both the optimal probability and leverage boards for tonight’s slate as he’ll face off against the Kansas City Royals. Giolito has had a pretty underwhelming season for his White Sox, but there could be more in the tank as we enter September. His ERA certainly leaves a sore eye as it sits north of 5.00, but his expected ERA falls all the way to 4.12 with an xFIP of 3.68. He has had decent strikeout production this year at about a 25.5% rate, but we know he has a much higher ceiling in that department, given past seasons.
Luckily for Giolito, who would love to put together a second straight decent outing to build momentum, the Royals are horrible. Over the past two weeks, we find them in the bottom four in baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ showing us how lifeless they truly are at the plate. They have struck out at a near 25% clip during the same stretch, which is a much-welcomed boost to a lacking strikeout upside for Giolito. He’ll be priced affordably at $8200 with an ownership expectation in the 10%-15% range. Given the high-priced stacks we see on this slate, Giolito could be a high upside option for you, given the leverage and very favorable matchup that will put the Sox hurler in an optimal position to gain some confidence.
SNELL LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK
Blake Snell also looks to be near the top of both the optimal probability and leverage boards for tonight’s slate, as he’ll have a showdown with the San Francisco Giants. Snell is coming off his worst start of the season tonight, where he let up six earned runs in 3.1 innings while tying his season-low strikeout total. Despite being inconsistent at times, we find both his expected ERA and FIP in the low-3.00 range, which is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.24. Since six innings probably is Snell’s longevity ceiling, getting a high strikeout volume is necessary for him. He can fully back that up with his seasonal rate of nearly 31%.
The Giants have been dreadful at the plate lately, as, over the past two weeks, they have ranked in the bottom-six in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while sporting a near 25% strikeout rate. They have dropped five in a row, so it is tough to assert much confidence in them right now. Snell has already faced San Francisco twice this season, where in a combined 11.2 innings, he only allowed two runs with a staggering 19 strikeouts! Proportioning that out over about six innings tonight would give Snell a great chance to turn optimal. Snell is priced reasonably at $9300 while projecting only to be slightly more owned than Giolito, but the Pads pitcher certainly has the higher ceiling and is the safer bet despite both guys having up-and-down seasons.
