We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Yankees, Mets
The New York Yankees’ team stack will take their reserved spot at the top of the optimal board against Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners. The Yankees have been dominant all season long and ranked top two in July in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They have shown no signs of slowing down as they look to continue to potentially add pieces as the trade deadline approaches.
Gonzales does not offer much opposition to a loaded Yankees that has made pitchers look silly all year. His xERA and xFIP approach 5.00 with a strikeout rate that has dipped to a league-worst 12.4% among qualified pitchers. The Yankees’ stack is looking to be slightly underpriced compared to where we usually see it, and it isn’t expected to be too overly owned. Backing this stack against a pitcher who relies on his fielders getting outs is playing with fire, and playing the Yankees’ stack has worked more times than not this year.
The New York Mets join their crosstown rivals near the top of the optimal board ahead of their matchup against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals. Corbin has had a rough season in a year of negatives for the Nationals as he has been essentially used as batting practice for a good chunk of his starts. He is in the midst of his worst stretch of the season. Over his last three starts, Corbin has a combined 10.2 innings and has surrendered 16 runs, including six in less than a single inning in his most recent outing. He probably is having the worst year of his career, culminating with the worst xERA among all qualified pitchers in baseball.
The Mets have had a rather productive month of July at the plate, where they have ranked in the top ten in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They also have had a sub-20% strikeout rate for the month which has been pretty status quo for them this year. We have this stack being priced high with an average salary north of $5000 on DraftKings, which is a tough pill to swallow, but Corbin has been so dreadful this year that it feels like a safe bet that he’ll give up something.
