Patriots Going Wrong Way Among Biggest Super Bowl Odds Swings

Much can change over the course of six months in the NFL, especially when you’re talking Super Bowl odds within a timeframe that includes one of the wildest offseasons in league history.

From a betting standpoint, that means a lot of value can be gained (or lost) by having foresight (or lack thereof) on certain teams. Nothing reflects that more than the betting market for Super Bowl futures, a market that can fluctuate more than the stock market.

Westgate SuperBook on Tuesday released its updated Super Bowl odds for the entire league and included earlier odds for an interesting point of reference. Looking at how those odds have changed since Feb. 2 — just a few days after the conference championship — certainly helps tell the story of the offseason.

Here are some of the bigger movers from February to now and why they’re at where they’re at.

Seattle Seahawks: 30-1 to 200-1
Seattle’s 2021 campaign was kind of fluky with some injuries and bad luck, so it wasn’t surprising to see them listed among the second tier of Super Bowl favorites in February. Then they went and traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos, and well, now only Houston has worse odds than the Seahawks. Related wrinkle: Denver’s odds (20-1) went unchanged, perhaps because everyone expected the Broncos to land Aaron Rodgers before “settling” for Wilson.

New England Patriots: 30-1 to 60-1
Bill Belichick’s team saw its season end in embarrassing fashion. The Bills completely manhandled them in the playoffs and that was that. There was reason for optimism, though, following Mac Jones’ impressive rookie season and a core of skill players that presumably would improve in Year 2 of Jones running Josh McDaniels’ system. Well, McDaniels left for the Raiders and was replaced by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. The draft was underwhelming, and the money spent last season hamstrung free agency this year. That the Patriots are in the neighborhood of -200 at some books to miss the playoffs tells you how the market sees them.

Las Vegas Raiders 40-1 to 20-1
The Raiders play in the toughest division in football and yet saw their odds slashed in half. McDaniels gets some credit for that, but so does the acquisition of Davante Adams who’s reuniting with college teammate Derek Carr.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 50-1 to 7-1
The Bucs are nothing without Tom Brady. He announced his retirement two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then he unretired. Pretty much covers it all here.

Dallas Cowboys: 10-1 to 25-1
The change in these numbers isn’t just a reflection of offseason moves. There’s some guesswork that goes into writing the odds, and the most popular teams are going to be the most popular bets. Perhaps that’s part of the reason Dallas was so low in February, but the 25-1 feels much more accurate at this point. The Cowboys did lose some high-end talent, trading Amari Cooper, releasing La’el Collins and letting Randy Gregory walk in free agency. Feels like Mike McCarthy’s job might be in jeopardy, too.