Red Sox-Rays Odds: Can Boston Put End To Troubling Recent Trends?

Somehow, it’s already the end of August, with only 37 regular-season games remaining for the Red Sox.

Postseason baseball is near and Sox fans are understandably uneasy. While Boston has battled injuries, the American League wild-card race is getting increasingly out of reach. The Red Sox enter the weekend eight games back in the wild-card race after Toronto swept them at Fenway this week.

If there is any sign of life from the Sox, it must come now. Four of their last six series are against AL East divisional opponents (Tampa Bay Rays twice, Baltimore Orioles, and then at home against the New York Yankees in the final regular-season series). They also face the Minnesota Twins who are in a playoff race themselves, the Twins sit only four games back in the AL Central and are making every series count.

Let’s take it a series at a time, though, shall we? The three-game set with the Rays kicks off on Friday. Here’s what I’m expecting from the Rays-Red Sox series with some possible plays.

Boston’s offensive stats over the last 30 days leave much to be desired. However, there is one obvious area to focus on with those numbers: their issues with runners in scoring position. For example, on Thursday against Toronto, the Sox went 3-for-20 with runners in scoring position in a close 6-5 loss. Their failure to score in the ninth inning with bases loaded and no outs (87% chance of scoring) is the perfect example of how much the scoring is being stifled. The Red Sox even had a win expectancy of 94% late in the game against the Blue Jays. In early June, Boston led the league in runners left in scoring position which proved to be a major issue keeping Boston back from its true potential. While they no longer lead the league, it clearly proves to still be an issue, but one that could flip soon.

Third-order win percentage (which I wrote about back in June), actually shows the Red Sox should have two more wins than they actually do. It might not sound like much but being only six games out of a wild-card spot would be a lot more encouraging at this point in the season.

Friday could be a good opportunity for the offense to get back on track and for Boston to get a much-needed win. The home team is getting respect from the bookmakers with Michael Wacha, Boston’s most consistent starting pitcher, on the mound. He’s 8-1 with a 2.28 ERA and has looked solid against tough opponents this August. JT Chargois is set to open for Tampa, but lefty Ryan Yarbough will work the bulk of the innings. Yarbough is 1-7 with a 4.43 ERA and his advanced stats don’t show regression in either direction. It’s a good spot for Boston because they have an edge against lefties – with the second-best batting average, third-best OPS and fourth-most runs in the American League versus southpaws. The Rays may be 6-0 against Boston in the last six games, but it’s time to put the trend to the test. I like Boston as a small favorite and lean over on the game.

Saturday is another good spot for the Red Sox to prove their strength against lefties, with Jeffrey Springs on the bump for Tampa. It will be a faceoff of lefties with Rich Hill getting the nod for Boston. Boston will open as a pick’em, even with Springs having a 2.46 ERA. While impressive on the surface, Springs advanced stats show that his expected ERA is closer to 3.45 – almost a full run higher. The Red Sox hit him well last time, tagging him for three earned runs on five hits in just four innings. If Boston gets the offense going Friday, it could be a good spot to build momentum. There’s no denying Hill has struggled with consistency all season and his ERA of 4.68 speaks to that. I’ll be looking at Boston’s team total with the market giving Springs possibly too much respect.

Then, in the finale, Tampa’s Corey Kluber will face Nick Pivetta. After a slow start to April, Pivetta had a stellar May and June with ERAs of 2.11 and 2.25 respectively. He struggled in July, allowing 25 earned runs in just five games, which pushed his ERA to where it is now (4.24). Tampa’s offense could give him some trouble. On the pitching side for Tampa, Kluber has been all over the place but his last two outings against the Sox (in July) he finished with just two earned runs in 12 innings. Remember though, July was a brutal stretch for the Red Sox offense, so I do expect some more offense from them here. I’ll likely lean over on the game.

Even with the Tampa Bay Rays being favored over Boston this series (consensus Rays -130 / Red Sox +100), I like the Red Sox to win two of three. The Red Sox have had their opportunities lately; they just need to cash in.