Patriots Remaining Schedule Still Elicits Confidence In Win Total Under

New England's win total now is listed at 3.5


Nov 28, 2023

The New England Patriots had a bye week to think about their embarrassing 2-8 season and international loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They had more than one week to game plan for the struggling New York Giants and undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. Yet, New England came out on the wrong side of history and became the first team in 30 years to lose back-to-back games despite holding their opponent to 10 points or less.

Through 12 weeks, the Pats are averaging 13 points a game, which is second-fewest in the NFL. They have a bottom-five point differential (-100) and Mac Jones has a quarterback rating better than only Zach Wilson and Bryce Young.

Bill Belichick has hit a new low with this squad.

Can it really get any worse? Well, oddsmakers don’t see it getting much better considering they have pushed the Pats win total down to 3.5. It opened at 7.5. That’s a four-game adjustment and yet I would still take the under.

Usually, we talk about not chasing numbers but at +140 to the under at BetMGM, I think the value lies within fading a team that has proven it simply can’t win.

At 2-9, the Patriots would need two more victories to cash the over on their adjusted win total. Considering the lookahead lines before the season had the New England as underdogs in all six games following the bye, I don’t have much faith it can weather the storm ahead after what we’ve seen so far.

Here’s a week-by-week breakdown to prove the point:

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Week 13: Patriots vs. Chargers
Los Angeles opened at -4.5 and it’s now up to -6. The Chargers have been a massive disappointment and it’s likely head coach Brandon Staley is on his way out after this season. However, this number has moved to a touchdown for a reason. Like the market, I’ll take Justin Herbert and his plethora of weapons over *insert Pats QB here* and the New England roster. Pats may cover but the Chargers win.

Week 14: Patriots at Steelers
The Steelers are 7-4 on the year, but it hasn’t been pretty. It seems like the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada was the right move, though, as Pittsburgh just had its first game actually outgaining its opponent all season. One bright spot has been the Steelers top 10 defense, led by sack leader T.J. Watt. Mac Jones already leads the NFL in interception-worthy throws — good luck facing the pressure of this defensive line. Belichick may have Tomlin’s number being 12-5 against the Steelers in his time with New England, but the Steelers have the edge in this one. Pittsburgh may just continue to find ways to win.

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Week 15: Patriots vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs were six-point favorites in this spot before the season started. Now 8-3 and a favorite to win the Super Bowl, Kansas City is likely to continue to see money by kickoff. It’s hard to believe Andy Reid and crew let a hopeless New England team get in their way. Patrick Mahomes will beat the Patriots and their bottom 10 pass defense. That shouldn’t be hard to believe.

Week 16: Patriots at Broncos
It took some time, but Sean Payton’s Broncos have arrived. Not only have they won five straight games but they’ve done so against some of the top teams in the league including the Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns. Russell Wilson is playing his best ball and the defense is finally a threat. Broncos win at Mile High.

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Week 17: Patriots at Bills
The 6-6 Bills have disappointed this season with a shaky last few weeks after their Week 7 loss to New England. However, there is no way they lose this matchup the second time around, especially at home while fighting for a playoff spot. The Patriots may keep it close again but the Bills win.

Week 18: Patriots vs. Jets
This one could be a win for the Pats. Maybe. The Jets showed some life with Zach Wilson at quarterback early and shocked the world with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6. But they have since been stifled in four straight losses. The only issue is those were losses to the Dolphins, Bills, Raiders and Chargers. The Patriots are a tier below — yes, even the Las Vegas Raiders. However, how comical would it be for New England to finish off their historically bad season with a meaningless win that hurts their draft position? If we’re talking hypotheticals, though, there is a possibility Aaron Rodgers is back by this last game. In that case: Jets win.

Thumbnail photo via Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports Images

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