We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
BRAVES IN A DESIRABLE LEVERAGE SPOT
The Atlanta Braves team stack finds itself atop the leverage board ahead of their matchup against Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins. Cabrera is still getting his feet wet in the majors, and up until his most recent outing, he was spectacular as five of his first seven starts were scoreless. He faced the high-powered Dodgers in his last start, allowing six runs over five and two-thirds innings. His expected ERA and FIP climbed to the mid-3.00 range and low-4.00 range which looks favorable for the Braves’ chances. Altogether, he let up at least five runs in two starts to the Astros and Dodgers, both two of the league’s best offenses. The Braves are in the same class as them offensively, so their upside bar has been set.
Atlanta has been swinging the bat nicely as they rank third in ISO over the past two weeks with strong wOBA and wRC+ positions. They have struck out at a near 25% rate during that stretch, which helps Cabrera’s already high upside in that category, but Atlanta has struggled with strikeouts all year and has still performed excellently. This stack will be expensive, as they should, and we only expect the stack to see them seeing ownership in the 2%-3% range. Grabbing the Braves here is a high upside play that has enough in the tank to warrant a play on them against Cabrera, who has struggled against great offenses.
CLEVELAND SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS
The Cleveland Guardians team stack also looks to be in a pretty advantageous leverage position as they will go up against Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners. We are seeing the Guardians in the position where they see minimal ownership because they have been the worst team offensively over the last two weeks. During that stretch, they rank dead last in all three of ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while registering only 23 runs. They also have a 2.7% Barrel% that ranks dead last in the league, while their HardHit% doesn’t improve much to only second-to-last in baseball.
Ray appears to come into his own lately as he had a dominant August with a 1.64 ERA. His most recent start on Sunday came against the Guardians, and we saw him go seven scoreless innings with only three hits allowed and seven strikeouts. The Guardians have shown nothing since to give us any hope that Ray isn’t fully capable of a repeat outing. He has a high strikeout upside as his seasonal rate approaches 29%, but he has been vulnerable to power. We shouldn’t be too worried about the latter for tonight. The Guardians appear to be pretty expensive on the DraftKings board, so there isn’t any reason to back them against a strong pitcher. Not all leverage is good leverage!
