We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
THE YANKEES ARE HOPING TO BREAK OUT… YET AGAIN
The New York Yankees’ team stack again finds itself near the top of the leverage board for tonight’s slate as they face Joe Ryan and the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees have managed to string together back-to-back wins, hoping to finally break out of their prolonged slump. We’ll give it a few more games, though. It is no secret how dead their bats have been for the most part, as over the past two weeks, they rank in the bottom seven in baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They have struck out at a sub-20% clip during that same stretch, so that’s one positive in their favor recently.
Ryan gets the ball tonight, hoping to face the August Yankees rather than the team we saw back in May. He has been serviceable for the Twins but doesn’t offer anything that could hold back the Yankees if they get hot. We find his expected ERA and FIP in a respectable spot around 4.00, along with strikeout numbers at a near 25% seasonal rate. He has been vulnerable to power this season which could have Aaron Judge on his way to home run number 55. Time and time again, we try to convince ourselves that tonight is the night where the Yankees pour it on and make a statement. Time and time again, we’re let down. This stack will be reasonably priced in a strong leverage spot, so if you have been one to continually back the Yankees, there is no reason to stop tonight.
THE MARINERS ARE IN A VALUE POSITION
The Seattle Mariners’ team stack looks to be in a desirable leverage spot ahead of their matchup against Johnny Cueto and the Chicago White Sox. The Mariners haven’t done much lately to convince us that they can put together a strong performance against a respectable pitcher. They have been unproductive over the past two weeks, given their low wOBA and wRC+ rankings, but they have shown power with their sixth-best ISO. We see their Barrel% and HardHit% in mediocre spots, so it is hard to anticipate their production to level out comparably to their ISO. Expecting a power fall-off instead appears to be the safer assumption.
Cueto is still hanging around with young fellas and has managed to give the White Sox a good season thus far. His strikeout rate is in the toilet, but he isn’t vulnerable to power and sports a sub-3.00 ERA over 20 starts. We see a noticeable climb in his expected ERA to nearly 4.00, so it isn’t a stretch to expect some September regression based on that. Plus, who knows the true longevity and durability of his 36-year-old arm this late in the season? We might be reaching a bit, but there is little to confidently pick a side in this one as both the Mariners and Cueto offer upside. However, few offenses should be considered minimally owned when facing a guy of Cueto’s caliber. The Mariners aren’t one of them.
