B1G Bets Week 7: A B1G Noon Clash in the Big House

Coming off a second-straight winning week, we’re feeling good going into Week 7 in Big Ten action. Saturday offers the biggest game of the season in the conference thus far as a pair of undefeated top-10 teams look to make their mark on the B1G standings and the national title picture.

Overall Record: 21-14 overall (+3.5 units) | ATS: 10-8 | Team Totals: 11-6

Onto this week’s picks. Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!

B1GGEST Bets (2 Units):

Last Week: 0-1; Season: 1-4 (-6 Units)

Maryland -11 INDIANA

We love Maryland laying the points. Their defense isn’t as good as the offense (more on their offense below), but it’s much improved from years past. They are 28th in the country in EPA on defense and 29th in success rate. Wow. What a difference a year makes.

They have some elite athletes in the secondary, with cornerback Jakorian Bennett (9 PDs) standing out among the group, and are third in the Big Ten in sacks (15), led by blitzing freshman linebacker Jaishawn Barham (3 sacks, 35 tackles).

Indiana’s offensive line might be the worst in the conference and has allowed 19 sacks this season. Connor Bazelak (52.5%, 5.4 YPP) struggles when pressured and doesn’t offer much in terms of big-time throws.

IU’s offense ranks 117th in success rate and 106th in EPA. They just fired their O-line coach, as if that’s going to fix things this week magically.

Maryland should win this one comfortably to pick up their fifth win of the season.

B1GGER Bets (1 Unit):

Last Week: 4-1; Season: 18-9 (+9 Units)

MICHIGAN -6.5 Penn State

I like both of these defenses. A lot. I like Michigan’s offense a lot. Do you know what I’m not crazy about? Penn State’s offense.

The Wolverines have the superior offensive line and quarterback. They average more yards per play (6.9 to 6.2), yards per carry (5.4 to 4.9), and yards per pass (9.1 to 7.6).

While Michigan is 12th in EPA offense (20th rushing, 11th passing), Penn State’s offense is 63rd (91st rushing, 50th passing). The Maize and Blue are fourth in success rate on offense, compared to PSU, ranked all the down at 95th. Many have these running games as even because of some splashy runs by talented freshman Nick Singleton, but PSU is 102nd in rushing success rate. There’s not much consistency there.

For some reason, many were very down on Michigan’s 21-point win over Indiana last week. It wasn’t overly impressive, but it has definitely been misrepresented. At halftime, FOX’s Joel Klatt told us that Indiana’s offense (5.3 YPA, 2.0 YPC) looked better than Michigan’s (7.2 YPA, 5.4 YPC). FOX’s Bruce Feldman said on his podcast that Indiana was âvery competitive.â The Hoosiers were out-gained 469 yards to 222, 8.4 yards per attempt to 4.1, and 4.1 yards per carry to 0.8. That’s competitive?

This isn’t to imply FOX has an anti-Michigan bias (they most certainly don’t), and I like Klatt/Feldman, but they were wrong. Has that influenced others (including betters) who didn’t watch the game? Quite possibly.

Then there is the James Franklin factor which has gotten very little play this week. He is 3-5 against Michigan, 3-4 versus Jim Harbaugh, and 1-3 in Ann Arbor. If you take out the COVID year (which typically Franklin supporters love to do, and I’m fine with), he’s 2-5, 2-4, and 0-3.

You want more? Franklin is 2-12 against ranked teams at Penn State and 0-8 on the road against Top-5 opponents.

I’ll take the better team, quarterback, and coach at home. The two times Franklin has faced a Harbaugh-coached team in front of fans in the Big House, the final scores were 49-10 and 42-7. I’m not predicting that kind of blowout, but it wouldn’t shock me (if J.J. McCarthy plays like a star).

ILLINOIS UNDER 16.5

The UNDER 19.5 on the Illinois team total hit against Iowa when they failed to score double-digits in their 9-6 win over the Hawkeyes. They’re going from playing the No. 1 defense in SP+ to the No. 5 defense in SP+. I’m not as high on Minnesota’s D as Iowa’s, but the Gophers have a heck of a unit.

Let’s look at some of the traditional defensive numbers. Minnesota is second nationally in PPG (8.8), sixth in rush defense, second in pass defense, and first in total defense. There’s no drop-off with modern analytics as the Gophers rank second in EPA and third in success rate.

Do I believe the Gophers have a top-five defense? I don’t. They’ve played the 131st strength of schedule and benefitted greatly from their opponents. In fairness, they held a solid Purdue offense to 20 points, and we’ve learned they can dominate bad offenses. Illinois has a bad offense.

The Illini’s offense ranks 84th in EPA, including 93rd in passing EPA. They are 91st in the country in yards per play. That’s against the 95th strength of schedule and mainly with a healthy Tommy DeVito, who was knocked out of last week’s Iowa game.

Against Iowa’s defense, the Illini managed 4.21 yards per play and expect a similar performance this week, especially if it’s Artur Sitkowski under center, which appears to be the case (no official word).

B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):

Last Week: 1-0; Season: 2-1 (+0.5 Units)

Maryland OVER 36.5

After playing two excellent defenses in Michigan and Purdue, the Maryland Terrapins will be licking their beaks heading into Bloomington to face an Indiana Hoosiers unit that gives up the most points in the B1G (30.5 PPG).

Led by Taulia Tagovailoa and a deep group of pass catchers, Maryland is second only to Ohio State in the Big Ten in yards per play. It’s an elite passing offense that is efficient and explosive, with nine different players who have receptions of 25-plus yards!

One-dimensional a year ago, the Terps are balanced in 2022, running behind one of the conference’s best offensive lines. Backs Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton are averaging over 6.0 YPC, with the latter crossing the goal line six times on the ground.

Expect the Terps to control the line of scrimmage and move the ball at will against an IU defense that doesn’t stack up (94th in pass defense EPA) and appears to be wearing down. They’ve allowed at least 30 points for four straight weeks.

Adding injury to insult, the Hoosiers will be without senior linebacker Cam Jones, their leader, and top tackler.

Part of this handicap is the style of offense the Hoosiers run. With 83.8 offensive snaps per game, they are as up-tempo as they come. They also throw a lot (67.5%), including many incompletions (140 compared to Maryland’s 55), which means their defense will be on the field a lot.

Nebraska +14 PURDUE

Purdue is certainly the better team but by two touchdowns? That’s a bit much. The gap isn’t that big.

Outside of their win over Indiana State (56-0), Purdue won their other three games by a combined total of 14 points. As a coach, Jeff Brohm has flourished against ranked teams, after losses, on the road, as underdogs. This game is none of those things.

The Boilermakers are just 8-11 as a home favorite under Brohm, and now they’re taking on a Huskers team that excels at losing close. Before Scott Frost’s last game (49-14 blowout loss to Oklahoma), Nebraska’s previous 13 losses came by single digits. Included in that run are six road losses and six close defeats to ranked teams. They play up or down to the competition.

Nebraska’s offense, while disappointing last week, is respectable with solid playmakers, while the defense has seen improvement over the past two weeks (both wins) since they made the switch at defensive coordinator, albeit against inferior opponents. Still, back-to-back second-half shutouts against any B1G foes are a major step in the right direction for this unit.

B1G Bets Week 7: A B1G Noon Clash in the Big House

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