A 3-2 Week 7 was a third-straight winning Saturday as we maintained our 60 percent clip (24-16). We’ll take that every week moving forward. MARYLAND -13.5 Northwestern
Money Line: Maryland -410 | Northwestern +315 | Total: 61.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: ESPN | Location: SECU Stadium | College Park, MD
Maryland: 5-2 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 24 | PFF: 35
Northwestern: 1-5 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 97 | PFF: 116
Money Line: Maryland -600 | Northwestern +425 | Total: 50.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: ESPN | Location: SECU Stadium | College Park, MD
Maryland: 5-2 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 24 | PFF: 35
Northwestern: 1-5 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 97 | PFF: 116
Maryland remains one of the more underrated teams in college football, while Northwestern could be the worst among the Power 5.
In every matchup, the Terps have a significant edge. Their offense is among the best in the Big Ten and will benefit significantly from the return of left tackle Jaelyn Duncan. He missed last week’s game unexpectedly due to personal reasons. The NFL prospect anchors a solid offensive line.
While Taulia Tagovailoa escaped a major injury and is practicing, coach Mike Locksley says his QB is a game-time decision. When he’s gotten in the game, backup quarterback Billy Edwards has shown he can move the ball and is a fantastic runner. The ‘Cats have to prepare for two styles.
Regardless of who starts under center, expect the Terps to score points. They’ve scored at least 27 in every game, 30-plus in four of five wins. Regardless of who starts under center for Northwestern (Ryan Hilinski is questionable with a concussion), expect the ‘Cats to struggle to put up points. They’ve scored 28 points in the past three games combined.
The Terps are 24th in offensive success rate, and the Wildcats are 93rd in defensive success rate. Northwestern’s offense is 119th in EPA, while Maryland’s defense is 31st. How about special teams? The edge is sixth to 126th per SP+ (!) in the home team’s favor.
Throughout much of his tenure, Pat Fitzgerald has been an excellent underdog; however, over the past season-plus, his team has lost eight B1G games by at least 17 points. Over the same time, Maryland has won by at least two TDs seven times (out of 12 victories).
Lay the points and sit back as the Terps cruise to victory. Grab it now because if Tagovailoa is cleared, expect the line to move up.
Indiana +3.5 RUTGERSMoney Line: Indiana +132 | Rutgers -160 | Total: 47.5
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET; TV: FS1 | Location: SHI Stadium | Piscataway, NJ
Indiana: 3-4 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 84 | PFF: 107
Rutgers: 3-3 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 72 | PFF: 65
Neither team is very good, and while I hesitate to say Indiana is better, they have better players, particularly on offense. For one, Cam Camper (41 receptions, 526 yards) is among the Big Ten’s leading receivers.
Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak is inconsistent, at best, but he does have more TDs-to-INTs (12-8), which Rutgers can’t say (6 TDs-8 INTs), he’s led the Hoosiers to a win over Illinois (23 points), and they’ve scored at least 21 points in all but one game (vs. Michigan).
Conversely, Rutgers has been held to 16 points or less in their past four games. In three Big Ten contests, they’re averaging 11 PPG, all losses. Yes, two of those losses were against Ohio State and Iowa. But two of those efforts were against Temple (16 points) and Nebraska (13 points).
Both defenses are solid against the run: Indiana is ranked 39th in rushing EPA, while Rutgers checks in at 31st. So, if one of these teams is going to win by throwing the football, it will be the Hoosiers.
Here’s the kicker. We don’t need IU to win. Just keep it close. The handicap is as much about the number as the teams.
This is the Rasheed Wallace game because I can assure you both teams will play hard. Especially on defense. It figures to be close and low scoring, which has us confident about getting points in what should be a toss-up game.
