Last Saturday snapped our winning streak to drop to 24-18 on the season, so it’s time to get back to basics. For me, that means some tasty team totals.
Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
Overall Record: 24-18 overall (+1 units) | ATS: 12-11 | Team Totals: 12-7
Onto this week’s picks. Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGEST Bets (2 Units):
Last Week: 0-0; Season: 1-5 (-8 Units)
Northwestern UNDER 13.5 (IOWA)Money Line: Northwestern +340 | Iowa -450 | Total: 37.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: ESPN2 | Location: Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA
Iowa: 3-4 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 35 | PFF: 40
Northwestern: 1-6 | AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 90 | PFF: 117
There’s a reason Iowa is a double-digit favorite (-10.5), and the computers have the Hawkeyes as the vastly superior team despite their three-game losing streak. Hint, it’s not because of Iowa’s offense.
Despite last week’s score (54-10 loss at Ohio State), SP+ still has the Hawkeyes as the No. 1 defense in the country, they’re No. 2 on PFF’s Power Rankings, and they’re 13th in defensive EPA.
If you’re a warped individual like me, you probably wish you could see what Brian Ferentz’s impotent offense does in practice against Phil Parker’s elite unit. I don’t believe Daddy is opening practice anytime soon, but Saturday’s matchup in Kinnick probably isn’t too far off.
If Iowa’s attack isn’t the worst among the Power 5, then Northwestern’s offense is. They are ranked 118th in success rate and 114th in EPA. The best way to attack Iowa is on the ground (unless you’re Ohio State). The problem for the ‘Cats is their rushing EPA is 128th. It’s not happening.
A little bit more on Iowa’s game last week. Some must be asking, how good are they? In the first half, OSU started four possessions inside the Iowa 35-yard line and had to settle for a field goal every time. That, score aside, was undeniably impressive. What other defense is going that?
One more angle. Iowa has an elite special teams unit, and Northwestern’s is as bad as their offense, contributing to their 109th EPA ranking in field position. To that end, expect the Wildcats to deal with many long fields in Kinnick on Saturday.
B1GGER Bets (1 Unit):
Last Week: 0-1; Season: 19-11 (+8 Units)
PENN STATE +15.5 Ohio StateMoney Line: Penn State +440 | Ohio State -610 | Total: 60.5
Time: noon; TV: FOX | Location: Beaver Stadium | University Park, PA
Penn State: AP Top 25: 13 | Coaches Poll: 13 | SP+: 14 | PFF: 7
Ohio State: AP Top 25: 2 | Coaches Poll: 2 | SP+: 1 | PFF: 3
This is just too many points, isn’t it? It’s not a night game. It’s not a “White Out.” I get it. But it’s still Beaver Stadium. Don’t you think the Nittany Lion faithful will be pumped up to host the Buckeyes? It’s still by far OSU’s most challenging road test of the 2022 season.
It’s also the best secondary Ohio State will face. Joey Porter Jr. is a projected first-round pick, and Kalen King is an excellent No. 2 corner. They’ve combined for 15 pass breakups, while safety Ji’Ayir Brown is a playmaker who is always around the football (3 INTs, 1 FF).
This is a talented and experienced group with the swagger needed to much up against the explosive Buckeyes.
Say what you want about Sean Clifford, but the kid, excuse me, the man is a gamer who has seen it all during his years at Penn State. He threw for 361 yards against the Buckeyes last year and connected on three TD passes against OSU two years ago.
The super senior is also most comfortable in Beaver Stadium, completing 66.1 percent of his passes at home, compared to 54.7 on the road this season. Clifford’s career TD-INT ratio in friendly confines is 47-11.
Two weeks ago, we outlined James Franklin’s struggles against top-ten teams, which are very real. Included in those numbers were many losses to OSU. But they’ve done an excellent job of playing the Buckeyes tough. He’s 1-8 against the Bucks but has lost by more than 13 once.
Going into Happy Valley and beating Penn State by more than two touchdowns is no easy task. We’ll take the points.
MICHIGAN OVER 38.5 (Michigan State)Money Line: Michigan -2500 | Michigan State +1100 | Total: 54.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET; TV: ABC | Location: Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, MI
Michigan: AP Top 25: 4 | Coaches Poll: 4 | SP+: 4 | PFF: 4
Michigan State: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 52 | PFF: 58
At this point, the Michigan Wolverines are a consensus top-five team, while the Michigan State Spartans are among the most disappointing squads in the country.
If the line wasn’t over three touchdowns, I’d be on the Maize and Blue, but rather than lay 22-23 points, I prefer to take the OVER on Michigan’s team total. The offense is a top-ten unit by most metrics, including success rate (fourth), just outside it in EPA (11th).
They’ll be going against a defense that is 111th in success rate and 99th in EPA. MSU is better against the run (62nd in EPA) than the pass (114th), but that’s still not good enough to slow down Michigan’s dominant two-headed ground game.
Blake Corum (901 yards, 6.2 YPC, 13 TDs) has arguably been the best running back in the country, and his backup, Donovan Edwards, is averaging even more yards per carry (7.1 YPC).
I also believe we could see J.J. McCarthy (77.1 completion percentage, 9.0 YPA) take a step forward this week for three reasons. One, the Wolverines are coming off an idle week, and you can bet they worked on adding layers to their offense. Jim Harbaugh knows this unit needs to keep improving, and he picked McCarthy over Cade McNamara for a reason.
Secondly, this is the perfect defense to open things up against. Sparty’s defense is 114th in pass defense EPA. Do you want old-school numbers? They’re 13th in the B1G in passing defense and last in defensive pass efficiency.
Finally, after losing two straight to Mel Tucker, you can bet the Wolverines will want to hang a significant number on the rival Spartans on Saturday night.
NEBRASKA +7.5 IllinoisMoney Line: Nebraska +230 | Illinois -285 | Total: 50.5
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET; TV: ABC | Location: Memorial Stadium | Lincoln, NE
Nebraska: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 64 | PFF: 83
Illinois: AP Top 25: 17 | Coaches Poll: 18 | SP+: 28 | PFF: 79
Illinois is 6-1 and ranked. They have the Big Ten’s leading rusher and the best scoring/total defense in the conference. I get it. And Nebraska is, well… Nebraska.
But this line screams take the points to me. I’m not sold on Illinois as one of the top 20 teams in America. They have one win over a Power Five team with a winning record (4-3 Minnesota) and are 1-1 on the road, including a loss to lowly Indiana (1-4 in the B1G).
This is a fantastic story for Bert; I mean Bret Bielema. But Mickey Joseph might be penning quite the narrative in Lincoln. Their bowl hopes have a life with two wins in the past three games, with Saturday arguably their most important remaining game.
As we outlined two weeks ago when talking the points against Purdue, before Scott Frost’s last stand, Nebraska’s previous 13 losses came by single digits. The Huskers play up or down to the competition, which makes them an excellent underdog.
Last season they went 0-6 against ranked teams, all by single digits, and five defeats came by seven points or less. The only team to beat them by more than a touchdown was Ohio State, 26-17. The Huskers have enough offense to keep this one within a touchdown.
Rutgers UNDER 13.5 (MINNESOTA)Money Line: Minnesota -690 | Rutgers +480 | Total: 40.5
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET; TV: BTN | Location: Huntington Bank Stadium | MN, MN
Minnesota: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 23 | PFF: 32
Rutgers: AP Top 25: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: 72 | PFF: 60
Rutgers is right there with Northwestern offensively. They’re 114th in success rate and 114th in EPA with an inept passing attack. Before putting up 24 points on Indiana last week, the Scarlet Knights had 33 points in their previous three games.
While the Gophers have allowed at least 20 points in three-straight games, the opposition was far superior to Rutgers, and two of those games came on the road. Back home against a bad offense, they can return to what they were doing to start the season (24 total points through four games).
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):
Last Week: 0-1; Season: 4-2 (+1 Units)
IOWA -10.5 NorthwesternI’ve already outlined Iowa’s defensive dominance above, which is the focus of this handicap.
But we do have a couple more angles. Iowa has an elite special teams unit, and Northwestern’s is as bad as their offense, contributing to their 109th EPA ranking in field position. To that end, expect the Wildcats to deal with many long fields in Kinnick on Saturday, while Iowa should have good field position.
Moreover, I expect turnovers from a Northwestern offense with an incredibly high 6.15% turnover-worth play rate when passing the football. That’s trouble against Iowa’s ball-hawking unit.
The Wildcats also present the worst defense Iowa has faced since Nevada, and the Hawkeyes scored 27 points on the Wolf Pack with over 300 yards of offense. After a Cleveland.com writer called for Brian Ferentz’s job this week, don’t be surprised to see his offense rally and respond. It’s now or never for the Hawkeyes, who desperately need a win.
