NFL Week 7 Picks: Get-Right Spot For Cowboys? Can Tom Brady Bounce Back?

We’ll level with you right off the top: Week 7 in the NFL is not going to be the best display of football all season.

A week after two possible conference championship previews, we’ve got what can best be described as a potentially forgettable week. That’s in large part because three of the NFL’s best teams — the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings — are all on byes this week, as are the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

As we discussed on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, it might be a great weekend to take in some of the fall foliage, especially before the days get super-short and we all drift into collective seasonal depression.

Anyway, just listen to the podcast to cheer yourself up:

Oh, and if you’re going to watch the NFL this week, you might as well try to win some bets or your pick ’em pool. As always, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are back to make their against-the-spread picks for each and every game.

First, here’s how they fared last week.

Now, here are their Week 7 ATS picks, with lines based on consensus data from the NESNBets live odds page.

THURSDAY, OCT. 20

New Orleans Saints at (-2) Arizona Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Cardinals. The Saints continue to battle injury problems at seemingly every position, including quarterback. I expect the Marshon Lattimore injury to be a big one, especially if the Cardinals go out of their way to feed DeAndre Hopkins in his return.
Ricky: Cardinals. Hopkins is a game-changer for Ariona’s offense. Not saying the Cardinals will soar moving forward, but his steady pass-catching presence should give Kyler Murray some comfort he hasn’t had yet this season. And if not, well, maybe we’ve reached the end of the Kliff Kingsbury era.

SUNDAY, OCT. 23

Cleveland Browns at (-6.5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. In the past, Wink Martindale’s Ravens defenses would feel more than capable of scheming up a way to stop a relatively one-dimensional Cleveland offense. Mike Macdonald hasn’t displayed the same ability, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Browns run hard and dictate the pace to keep it close.
Ricky: Browns. Cleveland’s offense ranks first in the NFL in rush EPA on first and second downs. Conversely, Baltimore’s defense ranks 21st in such situations, suggesting the Browns will control the line of scrimmage and wear down the Ravens. Jacoby Brissett just needs to take care of the football better than he did last week against New England.

(-11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the Panthers’ team total set at 13.5 points. The under feels like the right play, and the Bucs — despite their issues — should be able to score 23 or 24 points, at least.
Ricky: Bucs. If Tom Brady doesn’t (finally) lead Tampa Bay to a blowout win here — with Carolina in total disarray, particularly on offense — then it’s probably time to really start questioning the Bucs’ ceiling this season.

Atlanta Falcons at (-6) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Atlanta has the NFL’s top rushing attack by DVOA despite the fact you probably can’t name one running back outside of the recently injured Cordarelle Patterson. The Bengals’ run defense looked improve to start the season, but they’ve allowed an average of 191.5 rushing yards the last two weeks.
Ricky: Bengals. Joe Burrow needs to come out slinging the rock against Atlanta’s defense, which has the lowest pressure rate and the second-worst dropback success rate in the NFL. And if the Bengals build an early lead, it’ll be difficult for Marcus Mariota and the Falcons to mount a comeback behind their run-heavy offense.

Detroit Lions at (-7) Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. It’s a big number, but the Lions have the worst pass defense by DVOA and second-worst run defense. That’s so bad! Mike McCarthy is no Bill Belichick, but I expect the Cowboys will have a game plan that completely exposes Detroit the way New England did in Week 5.
Ricky: Lions. Detroit’s bye week came at a good time, as the Lions were dealing with some injuries — most notably to offensive standouts D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown — and just got waxed by the Patriots. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott’s return undoubtedly raises Dallas’ ceiling, but there could be some rust to shake off. Plus, the backdoor is always open with the Lions.

New York Giants at (-3) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. I don’t entirely understand the information in this tweet, but it does seem to indicate the Giants have played above their heads recently. It could continue against an underachieving Jags team, but it has to end at some point … I think.
Ricky: Jaguars. All five of the Giants’ wins have been by one score. They’ve overcome a double-digit deficit three times. Last week, the Ravens averaged 7 yards per play to the Giants’ 3.8, with New York ultimately prevailing because of costly turnovers by Baltimore. Action Network’s luck rankings have the Giants as the luckiest team in the NFL and the Jaguars as the fifth-unluckiest. Love this spot for New York’s momentum to hit a wall.

Indianapolis Colts at (-2.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. Tennessee won a few weeks ago in Indy, despite its best efforts to give it away after an early lead. Indy’s defense is finally getting healthy, which could be a problem for the Titans, as could the pass defense against Matt Ryan, who has a passer rating of 100 or better in three of his last four games.
Ricky: Colts. Only three teams have allowed more yards per drive than the Titans. Only five teams have allowed fewer yards per drive than the Colts. This is a good spot for Indianapolis to continue its turnaround, on both sides of the ball. Gimme the points.

(-5.5) Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Commanders. The Packers might be an auto-fade for now. It feels like there are philosophical differences between Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers, and if Rodgers doesn’t want to run the offense — especially the running part — the Washington pass-rush (third in pressure rate) might rip him apart.
Ricky: Commanders. Washington actually might be better with Taylor Heinicke, not Carson Wentz, running the offense — at least down the stretch in close games, which this has the makings of being given Green Bay’s ongoing problems.

NFL Odds: Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 7

Oct 18, 2022

New York Jets at (PK) Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Ultimately, the Russell Wilson injury looms large and sounds like an actual issue. Even with Wilson, Denver has no run game to keep the Jets’ pass rush honest, and that New York secondary is very good. New York finds a way to win a low-scoring squeaker.
Ricky: Broncos. Zach Wilson hasn’t exactly been a worldbeater since returning, despite the Jets’ three-game winning streak. And his growing pains will be exposed this week in Denver, where the Broncos’ defense is among the NFL’s best thanks to a strong pass rush and excellent downfield coverage.

Houston Texans at (-7) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Only one team has fewer turnovers than Houston this season, they haven’t been penalized a ton, and they play solid special teams. Just one of their three losses was by more than a touchdown. They seem to be a well-coached team coming off the bye. They should hang around.
Ricky: Texans. Houston has the fourth-ranked red-zone defense, which is notable because Vegas’ drives have stalled all too frequently this season. Only five teams have a worst red-zone offense than the Raiders. The Texans make life difficult.

Seattle Seahawks at (-6.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Kenneth Walker III gives the Seattle offense a new wrinkle, and that should really stand up against the 22nd-ranked run defense by DVOA. The Chargers are tough to trust, despite their 4-2 record; they have a minus-11 point differential with the 12th-easiest schedule so far.
Ricky: Chargers. Justin Herbert vs. Seattle’s defense (30th in dropback EPA and 31st in yards per completion) is a mismatch. And only two teams have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Seahawks, setting up Austin Ekeler for another strong performance through the air.

(-2.5) Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. The advanced metrics say the Chiefs’ passing attack is still elite. Maybe, maybe not. For one week, at least, it will definitely look that way given the massive injury issues for the 49ers defense.
Ricky: Chiefs. Returning home after a back-to-back on the East Coast historically has been a trouble spot for the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. And now, they’re arriving back in the Bay Area with a depleted roster, as the injuries just keep piling up.

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-7) Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Perhaps a little extra motivation for the Steelers with Brian Flores on their staff going back to Miami where he was railroaded. The Steelers have also played everyone not named the Bills tough, with their other three losses coming by an average of six points. This number just feels slightly too high, regardless of who’s playing QB for either.
Ricky: Dolphins. Admittedly keep flip-flopping here, because the number seems high. But we’re just two weeks removed from the Steelers losing by 35 points to the Bills — whose only loss came against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in Week 3, mind you — and thus this has all the makings of a letdown spot for Pittsburgh after a huge upset over Tampa Bay.

MONDAY, OCT. 24

Chicago Bears at (-8) New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. The Patriots just won their last two games by an average of 26 points against the Lions and Browns. Both are better than the Bears. This could and should get ugly.
Ricky: Patriots. Doesn’t this just feel like the type of game where a bad team, led by a young quarterback, comes into Foxboro in primetime and gets absolutely stomped? A pick-six here, a scoop-and-score there and the Patriots roll.