NFL Odds: Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 7
The Packers simply can't be trusted right now
A week after we were treated to a couple of juicy potential playoff previews, the schedule for NFL Week 7 is, um, not as good.
This being the second week of byes, there are four teams who get their mandatory week off: Buffalo, Minnesota, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Rams. Those teams are a combined 19-5 through four weeks. The Bills and Eagles are the two best teams in football, the Vikings might be the third-best, and the Rams are defending Super Bowl champions.
Tough scene.
But for bettors (and fantasy players), it’s these types of weeks where you really earn your keep. And as we dig into the Week 7 slate, we’ve once again come up with three favorites you might want to avoid picking.
(-6) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons
They don’t call ’em the Coverin’ Falcons for nothing. Atlanta is 6-0 against the spread this season. It was interesting to look at the EPA team tiers this week and see the Falcons in a cluster with teams like the Chargers, Giants, Raiders, Dolphins and Bengals. If that’s the neighborhood they live in — and six weeks is a pretty good sample size — then it doesn’t feel like the Bengals should be laying a full touchdown here. The Falcons might be the best running attack Cincinnati has seen this season, and the Bengals have struggled against the run recently, allowing 5.6 yards per carry over the last three weeks, fourth-worst in the NFL. The Cincinnati offense is starting to come alive, so the Bengals should win this, but don’t be surprised to look up and see a tight one late.
(-6.5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Chargers have won two games in a row, which is nice for them, but those two victories came by a combined five points against teams that are now a combined 4-8. It hasn’t been especially impressive, which is unsurprising given the injury issues. In fact, the Chargers are somehow 4-2 with a minus-11 point differential against the 12th-easiest schedule through six weeks. And Seattle could certainly give them problems. The Seahawks offense has been shockingly good, and Kenneth Walker III looks like a problem for opposing defenses, like the Chargers, who rank 22nd in rush defense DVOA.
(-5.5) Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
The only obvious reason to want to bet the Packers this weekend is Taylor Heinecke, who will start at quarterback for Washington in place of the injured Carson Wentz. Here’s the thing, though: Heinecke might actually give the Commanders a bit of a boost, especially against a Packers defense that has looked completely clueless at points this season. Even if the Packers jump out to an early lead — which feels unlikely given the offense might be even more broken than the defense right now — Washington should have the backdoor open for a cover. The Packers have allowed 55 second-half points and 31 fourth-quarter points the last three weeks. Even when the defense looks good for spurts like it did last week against the Jets, opponents eventually find ways to break through, and when they do, the floodgates shoot open. It’s still possible things click this week for the Packers and they get right in a big way, but it’s hard to put any tangible backing behind that notion until we see otherwise.
