Patriots Vs. Jets Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick For Week 8
Mac Jones is a big wild card this week
It's been a long time since there's been a Patriots-Jets game that has mattered as much -- for both teams -- as this week's clash at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets might actually be something resembling good. New York comes in with a 5-2 record, a half-game behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East standings. The Patriots, on the other hand, are technically a last-place team, but at 3-4 in a wide-open conference, they could certainly make a run.
If that's going to happen, it probably has to start Sunday in East Rutherford. The Patriots are in the most important stretch of their schedule, with winnable games against the Jets and Colts before the Week 10 bye and then finishing the season against teams that either made the postseason last season and/or are currently in the field for this year.
Given the markets and the importance of the game itself, this might be a big one for bettors in Week 8.
That said, here's all that bettors need to know for this weekend's Patriots-Jets showdown, with betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
(-2.5) New England Patriots at New York Jets
Total: Over/under 40.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 30, 1 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, N.J.
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
You might have heard this before, but the Patriots have had their way with the Jets pretty much forever. New England has won 25 of the last 30 meetings, including the last 12. Even with some of the turbulence in recent seasons, New England still finds a way to lay the wood against Bill Belichick's most hated rivals. The Patriots have covered four of the last six meetings dating back to the start of 2019 by an average of 21 points. Last season, the Patriots beat New York by a combined 60 points. Playing as a small road favorite hasn't been a slam dunk for New England in recent seasons, though. Since 2019, the Patriots are 2-4 outright and 1-4-1 against the spread as road favorites of one to four points. The under has hit in the last four despite a total of 41.5 or less in three of those contests.
This probably says more about the Jets' performance and perception in recent years, but New York has been a home underdog of four points or less just five times since the start of 2019. They have only faced the situation twice under Robert Saleh, both against the Dolphins. The Jets lost as 4-point underdogs to Miami last year but throttled the Fins 40-17 as 3-point dogs in Week 5. Saleh has his team playing well, though, and they have been a good bet. The Jets have covered the spread in four straight games, and they are 4-1 ATS against the AFC.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones OVER 192.5 passing yards -- The Patriots took Jones off the injury report earlier this week, so he's all systems go after the ankle sprain. Things don't feel very good right now with the New England passing attack, particularly as it pertains to Jones. And this is really nothing more than a hunch, but this feels like a week for the Patriots to send a message that yes, they still believe in Jones, and no, they aren't sabotaging him after taking him in the first round last year. It's worth noting center David Andrews will miss the game with a concussion. It's possible his absence completely derails everything, but his loss might be felt most in the run game. His Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade ranks 10th among 82 offensive linemen who have taken 50% of run-blocking snaps. Maybe it's not a huge deal, but it's possible that absence leads New England to pass more. The Jets secondary is one of the best in the NFL, but the Patriots feel good for a shot play or two with Jones under center, and that will go a long way toward getting to the number, even if it's a little fluky. Jones has also gone over that number in the seven of nine full games he has played since the wind game in Buffalo last season.
JETS PROP TO CONSIDER
Team total UNDER 18.5 points (-105) -- Points will be hard to come by for the Jets this week. New York has eclipsed that total in four of seven games this season, so it's certainly within the realm of possibility. But you start to dig in and look at some of their games, and they certainly have gotten some help. They scored 14 points in the final 1:22 against Cleveland to go over that number, scored in the final minute to hit it in Pittsburgh and blocked a punt for a touchdown in Green Bay. Those things don't come off the board for the sake of the argument, but they're not especially sustainable. The bigger issue, though, are injuries. The Jets will be without arguably their two most important players, running back Breece Hall and offensive tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, for this one, and receiver Corey Davis was ruled out Friday. Zach Wilson has struggled enough as it is this season, entering with a passer rating of 73.6 and having failed to eclipse 121 passing yards in either of his last two games. And you just know Belichick, who held the Jets to 19 combined points last season, will have something ready to go this week.
PICK: UNDER 40.5
Another week, another Patriots under. We've just about gone through it all in the sections above. The Patriots are sputtering, and there's not a ton of reason to believe they'll magically get it right this week. But they do still have a good defense led by Belichick, who should have a game plan ready for the seemingly hapless Wilson. The Jets, on the other hand, might have a better defense but a worse offense. It doesn't take much to get to 41 points, but this just has all the makings of an old-school defensive struggle -- just the way Belichick (and the defensive-minded Saleh) like it. A final score of 20-17 feels like the play here.
