NFL Odds: How Will Buffalo Snow Affect Bills-Browns Line, Total?

A lot of times, the best NFL bets are the ones made early in the week, which could ultimately be the case with a Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Browns.

As of Tuesday morning, the NESNBets live odds page had the Bills as a consensus 8.5-point home favorites with a total of 43.5 points for Sunday. While the line might ultimately fluctuate, especially given the relative uncertainty surrounding Josh Allen and his health, that total might not last for much longer.

In fact, if forecasts are correct, that number could plummet in the week leading up to Sunday’s kickoff in Orchard Park. That’s because there’s potential for a historic snowstorm this weekend in Western New York.

“Get ready to send out the plows and open up the record books,” the lede to a Buffalo News story reads. “The Buffalo area is almost certain to get socked with serious snow this weekend.”

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The National Weather Service has already issued a winter storm watch for the area that begins Thursday and lasts through Sunday with potential for 1 to 2 feet of snow.

Of course, there’s a huge difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow per hour on Thursday, Friday or even Saturday and what will be happening by 1 p.m. ET Sunday. However, given the nature of this lake effect storm and how long it could ultimately linger, there’s still a chance for snow Sunday. What might be even more impactful to the game, though, is the wind.

“Even on Sunday, with the approach of an Ontario low pressure system and its cold front, lake snow may become less organized ahead of the front for a few hours due to wind shear and backing winds, and may then reorganize behind the cold front and its veering winds,” Buffalo meteorologist Don Paul wrote for the Buffalo News. “Conditions will be very wintry for the Buffalo Bills-Cleveland Browns game, with a somewhat stiff breeze, temps in the upper 20s-30, and a chance for occasional snow.”

The market isn’t wasting time in reacting. The total opened at 47 points and has been bet down to 43 at both Caesars and BetMGM. It’s going to be fascinating to see whether bettors and sportsbooks ultimately overreact to the forecast, especially this far out. The Bills and Browns have two of the NFL’s best offenses, ranked fifth and sixth by DVOA, respectively. Buffalo’s defense ranks first by DVOA but has started to show cracks recently, especially without safety Jordan Poyer. The Bills rank 21st in EPA per play allowed over the last three weeks. The Cleveland defense, meanwhile, is one of the NFL’s worst as evidenced by the 39 points it surrendered last week.

The spread will be a fun one to watch, too. Buffalo opened as 8.5-point favorites but are down to consensus 8-point chalk with some 8.5 numbers still out there. If the wind and/or snow are going to be a factor Sunday, it might actually favor the Browns. Cleveland has one of the most effective running games in the league, and the Bills are allowing an average of 176 rushing yards over this three-week stretch in which they’ve lost two of three. The Bills have been able to run for at least 100 yards in each of their nine games this season, but they are a heavy pass-first team.

The Browns might want to take a long look at the film from Buffalo’s Week 14 game last season against the Patriots. With howling winds of 30 mph and more, New England committed to the run game with 46 of their 49 plays being called runs. The Patriots ran for 222 yards while Buffalo struggled to move the ball through the air in the Patriots’ eventual 14-10 win.