NFL Survivor League Week 11: Play It Safe Or Roll With Contrarian Pick?

The last of the unbeatens was handed a Week 10 loss, as the Washington Commanders outlasted the Philadelphia Eagles on “Monday Night Football.” It likely served as the latest blow to NFL survivor league players, with many viewing the undefeated hosts as a worthy selection.

Philadelphia might not have been the only team to cause survivor leaguers to hit the exits, though. The loss by Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders to the Indianapolis Colts, despite head coach Jeff Saturday making his debut less than one week after working as an ESPN analyst, was another one. It was a rather embarrassing effort for the Raiders, one that tells you where the franchise stands after 10 weeks. The Raiders and Eagles were the fourth- and fifth-most popular selections in the Circa Sports survivor league with nearly 9% of players taking each team.

A few of the more popular plays, however, earned victories to help players advance to Week 11. Circa Sports revealed Tuesday only 86 of their 6,133 entries are still alive, while many smaller leagues likely have folded given the unpredictable start to the NFL season.

With that said, we’ve highlighted three teams to consider and three others to avoid in Week 11. All betting prices are based on consensus data listed on the NESNBets.com live odds page.

Teams to pick
(-13) Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers (-735 moneyline)
We’ve seen week after week how no outcome is definite, but the Ravens feel like the safest pick in Week 11. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense average the second-most rushing yards per attempt and the defense allows the third-fewest yards per game on the ground, matching up well against the 3-7 Panthers, who have relied on their running game. The 6-3 Ravens, who are coming off a bye, have the single-largest spread on the board and getting the Panthers at home is one of their best remaining matchups. Hosting the Denver Broncos in Week 13, though, should be another enticing spot.

(-8) San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-366 moneyline)
The Week 11 game on “Monday Night Football” will be played at a neutral site in Mexico City. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t yet know who will be playing quarterback, with both Kyler Murray (hamstring) and second-stringer Colt McCoy limited due to injury. Either way, taking the 49ers is a bet on their defense, which continues to look like one of the best in the league. San Francisco does have other favorable matchups down the road with the Washington Commanders in Week 16 and the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17.

(-3) Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (-163 moneyline)
Here’s a contrarian pick that still will be decently popular. We advised going with the New York Giants against the Texans in Week 10, and while it wasn’t a blowout, it proved to be a good call. The Texans continue to get absolutely gashed on the ground, and the Commanders enter Week 11 with momentum after handing the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss of the season. If you want to use Washington, this is the time to do it.

Honorable mention: (-3) New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions (-164 moneyline)

Teams to avoid
(-1.5) Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-124 moneyline)
It’s a bit of a surprise to see the 8-1 Vikings as a home underdog, especially with the 6-3 Cowboys coming off a loss to the Green Bay Packers. We’re staying far away from both of these teams given there are so many better options in what’s essentially a coin flip.

(-8) Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (-368 moneyline)
I mean, have you seen the weather reports ahead of this one? Even if this game gets moved to a neutral site, Josh Allen and the Bills are not playing their best football right now. Buffalo has dropped two straight to the New York Jets and Vikings, and now sit third in the AFC East. We can’t help but want to hold off until the Bills get things right.

(-3) Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-148 moneyline)
Don’t overthink this one. Both of these teams stink and you’re not going to want to pay any attention to this game.

Honorable mention: (-3) Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans (-171 moneyline)