B1G Bets: Big Ten Championship Game Edition

With a 3-2-1 record in Week 13, we improved to 45-29-1 (61%), including 19-11 (63%) on team totals.

Onto this week’s picks. Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!

Overall Record: 45-29-1 overall (+14.5 units) | ATS: 24-17-1 | Team Totals: 21-12

Last Week: 0-0; Season: 5-5 (Even)

No B1GGEST Bet this week.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 33-20 (+13 Units)

Money Line: Michigan -820 | Purdue +550 | Total: 51.5
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX | Location: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN
Purdue: 8-4 | CFP: NR | AP: NR | Coaches: NR | SP+: 47 | PFF: 48
Michigan: 12-0 | CFP: 2 | AP: 2 | Coaches: 2 | SP+: 2 | PFF: 2

Let’s start with when Purdue has the ball. Their “strength.” The Boilermakers are 21st in the country and second in the Big Ten in passing offense. But the reality is, they’re not that good at throwing the football. When looking at yards per pass, the Boilermakers drop to 92nd and 10th. 

Purdue averages 6.8 yards per pass attempt. For comparison’s sake, Michigan averages 8.1 YPA, and the team Michigan beat last week, Ohio State, gains 9.4 YPA. The Buckeyes are much more explosive and balanced than Purdue, and the Wolverines held them 21 points below their average.

Purdue’s offensive success rate is 54th, 58th via the pass, 82nd in net pts/drive, 78th in passing EPA, and 74th in rushing EPA. Michigan’s defense is 10th in success rate, 28th versus the pass, second in net pts/drive, sixth in passing EPA, and third in rushing EPA.

Looking deeper into the numbers, it appears to be a bad matchup for the Boilermakers, who are 61st in early downs EPA and struggle with third and fourth-down success (93rd). The Wolverines are second in early downs EPA and excel in third and fourth-down situations (fourth).

Michigan’s secondary might be the most underrated unit in the Big Ten, a group that has gotten better and deeper as the season has progressed. Their defense is an excellent tackling group, so yards after the catch will not come easy. It will be challenging for Purdue to move the chains, and I anticipate turnovers from an offense that often puts the ball in harm’s way. 

The B1G East champs also bring a significant special teams edge, ranked tenth by SP+ and first in defensive field position, while Purdue is 121st in SP+ and 87th in offensive field position. 

For the second year in a row, the Michigan Wolverines are rolling into Indianapolis fresh off an upset over Big Ten favorite Ohio State with a chance to capture a conference title.

The Wolverines waited 17 years in between Big Ten Championships before 2021, and while no one expected another 17-year drought from the Maize and Blue, not many believed they would be back so quickly. 

The Purdue Boilermakers last finished atop the B1G in 2000, their only first-place finish in the past 55 years! Can Jeff Brohm and his spoilermakers make history in Lucas Oil Stadium? 

There’s a case to be made for Purdue. Coach Brohm has relished the underdog role (which we’ve been on this year), and some have questioned Michigan’s motivation since they’re in the College Football Playoff regardless of Saturday’s outcome. I’m just not the guy to make that case.

Purdue has solid defensive numbers, probably surprising to some picking the Boilermakers due to their offense, but they haven’t faced an attack like Michigan’s or a back as explosive as Donovan Edwards. It starts with the offensive line, and the Wolverines are the best the B1G offers. 

Even if they don’t strike right away, they wear you down, which is why Michigan is one of the best second-half teams. Over the final seven games, they outscored Indiana 21-0 in the second half, Penn State 25-3, Michigan State 16-0, Rutgers 38-0, Nebraska 17-0, and Ohio State 28-3. 

That’s a trend I expect to continue on Saturday, especially against a defense that’s not used to being on the field that long. Purdue is 24th in time of possession, Michigan’s bread and butter, as the Wolverines are fourth. And that’s before we get into the considerable big-play potential.

Purdue’s defense is vulnerable to explosive plays, ranked 73rd in plays given up of 30+ yards, 100th in plays of 40+ yards, 111th in plays of 50+ yards, and 127th in plays of 60+ yards. I know people believe Michigan became a big-play offense suddenly last week, but for the season, they’re 15th in plays of 40+ yards, 11th in 50+ yards, and eighth in plays of 60+ yards.

That could come from explosive runs by Edwards or the passing game through J.J. McCarthy and Company. 

Don’t anticipate a letdown from this group, who take after their head coach. Last year many thought after finally beating Ohio State, the Wolverines would let up. They crushed Iowa 42-3. They believe they’re on a mission to win the national title and that the journey has just begun.