Herbert should feast on a poor Titans pass defense
Week 15 means everyone plays, and every game — for the most part — matters for playoff implications. Here are three players I would target in both betting or fantasy based on their recent production, as well as this week’s matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Chargers’ Justin Herbert
Here you are getting a defense in the Titans that is allowing the most attempts a game (40) versus a quarterback who has the second most attempts, behind only Tom Brady. Justin Herbert is expected to have all of his weapons healthy in the passing game and will be playing against a Tennessee defense that ranks fifth worst in overall pass DVOA. The third-year quarterback is averaging almost 30 completions on around 42 attempts in the last five games and should use his arm plenty in a matchup where his squad is only three-point favorites at home.
Kansas City Chiefs -14 vs. Houston Texans
Running Back: Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco
If all goes according to plan and the Chiefs do build a lead to cover the 14 points, rookie running back Isiah Pacheco should be able to build on his recent breakout. In the last five games, he has rushed for over 66 yards, averaging almost 79 a game. In that stretch, he has not only averaged 16 rush attempts a game, but he has also gotten involved in the passing game as well. Still, the matchup bodes well for his ground game as the Texans are allowing the most rush attempts a game (27.9), most yards (141.2) and fourth-most yards per carry (5.1).
Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins
Wide Receiver: Bills’ Stefon Diggs
Targeting one of the best receivers in the game is not necessarily a sharp play but Diggs should see plenty of volume in this matchup against Miami. His receiving yards prop is set too low at 72.5, with him averaging over 95 receiving yards a game this season, and six games of 100 yards or more. The Bills are minus-7 point favorites but I don’t see them gaining a big enough lead where they would lean on the run game. Plus, they have the fourth-highest passing play percentage in the league despite their massive leads throughout the season. On the other side, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are tough competition, especially if Tua Tagovailoa can clean up his game. With this total opening as one of the highest on the board, there should be a good amount of back and forth. Miami’s offense may be a threat but their defense ranks bottom-10 in pass DVOA and Diggs should benefit from that, being the third most targeted receiver in the game right now with over 62 targets more than his Bills teammates.