Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Michigan Preview and Insights

Get your best ball shined up, those slippy shoes on, and your wrist brace dusted off because we’re going bowling! Bowl season is here, and we are getting you ready by previewing every single game. Here we head to Arizona for the 52nd annual Fiesta Bowl as the TCU Horned Frogs battle the Michigan Wolverines with a spot in the National Championship game up for grabs.

Fiesta Bowl Game Information

Date: Saturday, December 31, 2022, | Game Time: 4:00 pm ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale ARZ| How To Watch: ESPN
Record: #3 TCU (12-1) | #2 Michigan (13-0)                                                                                            

Spread: MICH -7.5 | Moneyline: TCU +250 – MICH -315 | Total: 58.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are no strangers to their spot at this year’s Fiesta Bowl. Michigan was this close to the National Championship Game last year when they fell to the Georiga Bulldogs 34-11 in the Orange Bowl. After winning the title last year, Georgia is in the other semifinal, and Michigan hopes they have a chance to get their revenge on the Bulldogs. Before that can happen, the Wolverines have to get by a spirited TCU squad.

The Horned Frogs are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell in overtime to the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 championship game. TCU put up 28 in the loss and have been an elite offense all year. Behind Heisman runner-up Max Duggan the Frogs averaged over 40 points per game, sixth-best in the nation.

Michigan’s defense will be tested, but they were ranked fourth in scoring D and third in rushing defense this season. The Wolverines also landed fifth in points allowed, giving up just 13.4 points per game. TCU gave up almost double the points Michigan did, so while the Wolverines’ offense, who scored 40.1 per, can hang with the Frogs’ attack, TCU’s defense is not on that elite level.

The Wolverines failed to cover just once in their final seven games and will have a smaller spread than where they opened. Michigan needs to cover 7.5 points after initially being favored by 9.5. TCU is no slouch on the line itself, covering five of their last seven contests.

• #3 TCU is 12-4 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season— tied for 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .498
• #3 TCU is 12-6 (.571) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season— tied for 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436
• #3 TCU is 9-1 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .451
• #3 TCU is 10-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 6th-best in FBS; Average: .501
• #3 TCU is 11-6 (.647) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season— 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .380

• #2 Michigan is 20-1 (.952) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season— 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .497
• #2 Michigan is undefeated (22-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season— best in FBS; Average: .516
• #2 Michigan is 24-1 (.960) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season— best in FBS; Average: .542
• #2 Michigan is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2021 season— best in FBS; Average: .494
• #2 Michigan is undefeated (23-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season— tied for best in FBS; Average: .590

• TCU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
• Michigan is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
• TCU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
• Michigan is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
• Under is 4-1 in TCU’s last 5 games overall.
• Under is 6-2 in Michigan’s last 8 games following a ATS win.