Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State Betting Preview and Insights

Get your best ball shined up, those slippy shoes on, and your wrist brace dusted off because we’re going bowling! Bowl season is here, and we are getting you ready by previewing every single game. Here we head to beautiful Honolulu for the Hawai’i Bowl as the San Diego State Aztecs will do battle with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

Hawai’i Bowl Game Information

Date: Saturday, December 24, 2022 | Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu HI | How To Watch: ESPN
Record: San Diego State (7-5) | Middle Tennessee (7-5)                                                                                          Spread: SDSU -6.5 | Moneyline: SDSU -265 – MTU +215 | Total: 49.5 

It took a tropical trip to Hawai’i for a pair of strangers to get the chance to finally get to know each other. The Aztecs and Blue Raiders have never seen each other before, and the two schools will faceoff for the first time when they take the field this Saturday.

Middle Tennessee gets maybe the best bowl trip for the second straight year, hitting Hawai’i after playing in the Bahamas Bowl last season. The Raiders have been a regular bowl season participant over the past two decades, seeing ten postseason appearances in the past 17 years.

MTU earned their way into their 2022 bowl appearance after a solid finish to the season. The Blue Raiders won their final three games and were victorious in four of five down the stretch. Mid Tennessee’s highlight of the year came early in the season with a big upset in Miami. The Raiders took it to the Hurricanes in a 45-31 beatdown in a game where they were 25.5-point road dogs.

That statement cover was a rarity for the 2022 team as they were not good against the spread this year. The Murfreesboro school covered just twice in their final eight games of the season.

SD State was also a team that turned things around in the season’s second half. The Aztecs won five of their final seven games after a lackluster start to the year. San Diego State’s turnaround was coupled with a change in the quarterback position. Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden took over from Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister under center and raised the team’s scoring average by four points per game.

The Aztecs will look to capture their third straight bowl as they beat the UTSA Roadrunners in last year’s Frisco Bowl after taking the New Mexico Bowl over the Central Michigan Chippewas in 2019. SDSU is rolling in with 11 straight bowl appearances, with their only absence coming after bowing out from consideration in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

San Diego State has been fairly reliable against the number this year, specifically in the second half of the season. The ‘Tecs covered four of their final six games and missed one of those covers in a win over the UNLV Rebels by just 1-point.

• Middle Tennessee RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season— tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams
• Middle Tennessee WRs have averaged 21.0 receptions per game (504/24) since last season— 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
• Decorian Patterson (MTU) has intercepted 5 passes this season— tied for 3rd most among FBS Defensive Backs
• Middle Tennessee has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (192 yards / 73 touches) in the Red Zone this season— tied for 3rd best in FBS; Average: 3.7
• Chase Cunningham (MTU) has thrown 8 TDs and just one interception in the 4th quarter since last season— tied for 4th best among FBS Quarterbacks

• San Diego State is 11-1 (.846) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season— tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .584
• San Diego State is 16-2 (.889) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season— tied for 4th-best in FBS; Average: .562
• San Diego State is 11-3 (.786) when in a one score game since the 2021 season— 7th-best in FBS; Average: .494
• San Diego State is 10-2 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season— tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .510
• San Diego State is 13-4 (.765) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season— tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .497

• Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
• San Diego State is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
• Middle Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• Over is 7-0 in Middle Tennessee’s last 7 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 35-17-1 in San Diego State’s last 53 games following a straight up loss.