Jaguars-Jets DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Zach Wilson has the highest optimal probability on this DFS Showdown slate between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. First off, we’d be remiss if we did not mention the horrible weather expected in North Jersey tonight, which has pushed this projected total down to 37.5. Trusting Wilson is tough, but he casually put up over 300 passing yards last week and now faces one of the league’s worst pass defenses. From a pricing standpoint, this is a reasonably affordable slate, and he’ll be under-owned, so we like him to produce a respectable outing from a fantasy perspective. 

Trevor Lawrence has been surging lately, but we’re a little worried about the incredible Jets’ pass defense that should add to the difficulties he will already be facing in the elements. He has a well-diversified offense, so it makes sense to back him over one of his receivers at the multiplier spot, as a three-touchdown game from Zay Jones likely won’t be repeated. We’re not bullish on anyone from the Jaguars’ passing attack tonight, but Lawrence would be the safest. 

Travis Etienne’s utilization has been through the roof and needs to be put in the multiplier discussion, combined with the weather setting up for a ground game. He routinely has a snap% share north of 70%, which is rare among NFL running backs, and could easily surpass 20 touches. The Jets’ defense is strong as a collective unit, but testing them on the ground is wiser than challenging them through the air, so we like Etienne as a possible target. 

Zonovan Knight is affordable as the Jets’ RB1 and should see a fair load of volume as he’s averaged over 17 touches per game over the last four. He’s a strong play, even though he’ll likely end up over-owned. There is a case to be made for Michael Carter as he’s out-snapped Knight over the past two games, but the volume disparity is so large for the pricing difference to only be minimal.

The Jaguars’ receivers are priced at a premium and deserve to be, given how they’ve played lately. Christian Kirk has earned the money that many people said he didn’t deserve, and Zay Jones has been a fantasy darling down the stretch, coming off of a three-touchdown slate. However, given the weather and the solid secondary New York boasts, we would rather not kill our salary here. 

Garrett Wilson is a safe play, as getting the ball in his hands has been a priority for the Jets. He’ll have a much more favorable matchup compared to Kirk or Jones. If you’re looking to pay up for a receiver, Wilson is your guy.

Evan Engram has combined for 25 targets over the past two games. That’s all that needs to be said. We expect Kirk and Jones to have trouble getting open with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed playing exceptionally, so expect Engram’s usage to continue. Although we didn’t officially tout it, he’s our favorite sleeper play at the multiplier. 

Elijah Moore is our favorite play out of him, Marvin Jones, or Corey Davis, who are all similarly priced. Moore has been targeted about eight times per game over his last three. We’re not confident in Davis’ workload coming off of an injury, and we still don’t like Marvin Jones’s matchup. 

Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah are affordable, and both are understandable plays, as the Jaguars allow the fourth most yards per game to opposing tight ends. Conklin offers more target stability, while Uzomah offers a high upside after his two-touchdown game last week, so pick your poison here. 

We aren’t too crazy about any dirt cheap options, which is fine as the slate is priced favorably, where we don’t need to hammer punt options into our lineups. Playing the Jets is going to be a play we like, as the Jets have a solid secondary and a run-defense that will be getting All-Pro caliber defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back to combat the run.