Saints-Buccaneers DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Tom Brady has the highest optimal probability on this DFS Showdown slate on Monday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. The Bucs want to be a pass-first offense, which has been abundantly clear, as he ranks first among quarterbacks in pass attempts per game. He has a bevy of weapons around him that all appear to be fully healthy for the first time this season, so Brady is shaping up to be a strong multiplier play tonight at a reasonable price and ownership projection. 

Choosing between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at the multiplier spot will be one of the more popular decisions on this slate. We’ll side with Godwin, despite him being chalky and expensive. Both receivers have immense potential, but the Saints and Marshon Lattimore have given Evans fits, as he hasn’t had a game of more than 70 yards against the Saints since 2018. Godwin has averaged 11 targets per game over his last five and has two straight games with a touchdown, whereas Evans has not found the end zone since October. Given the offensive diversity, we will still back Brady at the multiplier, but Godwin will be our second option. 

Chris Olave will be our favorite play from the Saints side, as we’re somewhat not confident in Alvin Kamara. Olave already has a 13-target game under his belt against the Buccaneers this season and ranks fourth in the NFL in air yards, only behind Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. He’ll provide some financial flexibility to your lineups at the multiplier spot and would be a great play if you like the chances of the Saints winning this game.

If you’re looking at potential, Kamara is in the multiplier discussion, but he hasn’t been great lately, averaging only nine carries per game over his last four. All of his touchdowns were in a single game, so we’re not bullish on Kamara, and we would instead dedicate the funds elsewhere.

Leonard Fournette is expected to re-enter the fold, paired with the surging Rachaad White. After a few successful games, we’ll ride the hot hand and side with White. He recorded at least 22 touches in each of the last two weeks and will benefit from lower ownership, given DFS players could be scared off by Fournette’s presence.

Andy Dalton isn’t a difference-maker and hasn’t thrown the ball more than 30 times in a game over the past four weeks. He’ll have a high floor given his position and provide safety, but don’t go out of your way to back him. 

Taysom Hill’s price is undesirable given that he is solely touchdown-dependent, which he has not done for the past five weeks. Still, there is reason to believe he could be in for increased utilization across the board. Kamara’s goal-line fumble could and should lead to the short yardage carries for Hill, while Juwan Johnson being out as the TE1 could lead to some trickery in the passing game. We wouldn’t go out of our way to make room for Taysom financially, but if you can afford it, play it. 

Julio Jones and Russell Gage are comparably priced. We will ride with the depth chart and side with Jones. Gage is questionable but expected to play with one of those nagging hamstring injuries, so we can’t be sure of his potential workload. Given that he is Julio Jones, Jones has a higher ceiling, so we’ll back the chalk here. 

Jarvis Landry is coming in over-owned at a fair price, yet we’re looking to stay away as in the six games that he’s played (besides the season-opener where he went crazy), he only has one of four receptions and didn’t eclipse 40-yards in any of them. We’re enticed by the upward trend in utilization and immense affordability of Rashid Shaheed, coming off a season-high in snap% last week. 

Adam Trautman will be a popular cheap play as the TE1 in the wake of Johnson’s injury. Johnson’s recent touchdown production might influence the perception of Trautman, who has not been very good this season, so we’d feel safer paying up slightly for Cameron Brate or Cade Otton, who have shown more than Trautman with much more reliable QB play.