After our second straight 4-1 mark coming out of last week’s NFC West Thursday Night Football battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, we are sledding into the Holiday Season feeling pretty festive. We’ve upped our record from the past two months to 34-21 and look to bring you a gift-wrapped set of picks tonight.
This holiday edition of TNF features a pair of teams in must-win situations. The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are collectively clinging to their playoff lives, and any misstep could be like Santa Claus going head-first down the chimney. Alright, get your sleigh ready as we fly into our Thursday Night Football props picks.
All odds and props are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
QB Trevor Lawrence Over 19.5 Completions (-114)Undoubtedly the biggest reason for Jacksonville’s late-season turnaround has been Trevor Lawrence. The 2021 first-overall pick not only has led the Jags to wins in three of their past four games but is putting up some of the most impressive numbers of his career. In that trifecta of Ws, Lawrence averaged 336 passing yards, a QB rating of 120.2, and ten touchdown tosses. Most importantly, for our purposes, he had completion games of 29, 30, and 27 passes thrown—all well over our needed number of 20. In fact, T-Law has missed going over 19.5 completions just once in his past six games.
While they may be different teams from 2021, Lawrence was quite impressive in his lone career start against New York. The former Clemson star completed 26 passes for 280 yards almost a year ago to the day, in the same spot he will meet the Jets tonight, MetLife Stadium. We’re banking that Lawrence can build off that Boxing Day battle this year, even though the challenge will be formidable.
New York’s defense has been why the Jets have even been respectable this season. The offense is terrible, so the D has had to work overtime to keep the green and white in games. They rank fourth, giving up just 193.9 passing yards per game, seventh with 39 sacks, and second with only 13 TDs allowed thru the air. Where they may have a slight chink in their armor is defending the short pass game. New York ranks outside the top ten, giving up 20.6 completions per game.
10 Bullets Why Trevor Lawrence Goes Over 19.5 Completions
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Trevor Lawrence has completed Over 19.5 passes in 71% (10/14) of games this season.
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Trevor Lawrence is averaging 24.7 pass completions per game over his last 3 games.
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Trevor Lawrence is averaging 26.4 pass completions per game over his last 5 games.
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Trevor Lawrence is averaging 23.5 pass completions per game this season.
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Trevor Lawrence has beat the Over for pass completions in 19 of 30 games (63%) since the start of the 2020 season.
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Trevor Lawrence has beat the Over for pass completions in 2 of his last 3 games.
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Trevor Lawrence has beat the Over for pass completions in 4 of his last 5 games.
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Trevor Lawrence has beat the Over for pass completions in 10 of 14 games (71%) this season.
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Trevor Lawrence has completed Over 19.5 passes in 2 of his last 3 games.
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Trevor Lawrence has completed Over 19.5 passes in 4 of his last 5 games.
Honorable Mentions: Zay Jones Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110), Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110), Trevor Lawrence Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-111), Travis Etienne Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
