AFC Championship Preview: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Adele was topping the charts, Marvel’s The Eternals was in theatres, and the Olympics were just days away. That’s right; we’re turning the clock back to January 2022, where what’s old is new as the Cincinnati Bengals again meet the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

These two teams will renew acquaintances almost a year to the day following the 2022 conference decider. Of course, the Bengals were able to upset KC with a 31-yard field goal in overtime, coming in as substantial dogs. This Cincinnati team is not sneaking up on anybody, as the orange and black enter as 1.5-point road dogs. 

The health of Patrick Mahomes will be paramount in this one after the MVP favorite suffered a right high-ankle sprain in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mahomes played the entire second half but did not look like his usual spry self. Any further limits on his mobility will seriously stunt KC’s offense. That said, Mahomes did practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to suit up on Sunday.

Cincinnati is coming in with their skill players healthy and red hot. The Bengals have reeled off ten straight wins after knocking off the Bills in snowy Buffalo last week as six-point dogs. They have also beaten the Chiefs in three straight.

Not only has Cincy been hot in the win column but also against the line. The Bengals are 8-1-1 ATS in their past ten, compared to a KC team that has gone just 2-7-1 vs. the number. The Bengals also covered in all three straight wins against the Chiefs.

For more trends, line movement, injury updates, player props, picks, and videos on Cincy at KC, visit our AFC Championship Game preview page. 

• The Bengals have run 58% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the second half this season, the best in the NFL (League Avg: 45%).
• The Bengals’ defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the third quarter this season, the best in the NFL.
• Cincinnati Bengals running backs have carried the ball 313 times without a fumble this season, tied for the best in the NFL.
• Cincy is undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than three sacks since the 2021 season, the best in the NFL (League Avg: .585).

• Kansas City Chiefs TEs have averaged 8.8 receptions per game (149/17) this season, the best in the NFL (League Avg: 4.6).
• Chiefs QBs have been sacked 26 times this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals have sacked the quarterback 30 times this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
• Patrick Mahomes has averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game (17 games) this season, the second-best of 34 qualified NFL quarterbacks (League Avg: 13.7).