Bengals-Chiefs Prop Bets: Big Day Coming For Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase
When it matters most, expect the Bengals' best to come alive
While there has been movement on the two sides and totals all week for the NFL conference championship games, prop bets also have seen a considerable amount of action.
Here are a few props to get in before the AFC Championship kickoff. Keep in mind: Chasing numbers from where they opened is not profitable long term.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. (-1.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 47.5
Joe Burrow over 24.5 completions (-115)
Along with money coming in on Kansas City and over after video and news of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes seemingly unbothered by his ankle injury, the passing yards line for Burrow has also increased. This is no surprise, as there is expected to be a good amount of back and forth in a high-scoring game if Mahomes is on the field. That being said, let's not chase the yards prop but instead go over on Burrow's completions. We cashed last week on Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts against the Chiefs. One of the reasons behind that play was that the Chiefs defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA this regular season. The unit is allowing the third-most attempts per game and fifth-most completions. Now they face a signal-caller in Burrow, who finished second in completion percentage during the regular season (68.3%). KC ranks bottom 10 when it comes to completion rate allowed, so it's a perfect spot for the third-year quarterback. Go over on a prop that Burrow will likely have to hit in order for the Bengals to punch their Super Bowl LVII ticket.
Ja'Marr Chase over 6.5 catches (-137)
I do warn against too much exposure with a certain player or side, but it's hard to pass on a prop where the numbers show such a high probability of cashing. Chase has had seven or more catches in nine of the last 10 games and is now facing a Chiefs defense that ranks second worst in DVOA against the number one wide receiver. KC surrendered the ninth-most receptions to wideouts in the NFL this season. Back in Week 13, Chase caught seven passes on eight targets against this Chiefs unit. The star wideout has averaged 11 targets through the regular and postseason and with such a high-stakes game, there's no doubt Burrow will look to his main weapon early and often.
Isiah Pacheco over rushing 47.5 yards (-115)
Here's another prop that just simply feels too low. The breakout rookie running back has hit this over in nine of his last 10 games, averaging almost 73 yards in that stretch. I do think it will be a heavy passing game on both sides, but with Mahomes less than 100%, I wouldn't be surprised if head coach Andy Reid goes for a balanced approach and leans on Pacheco in the ground game. Looking back to Week 13 against the Bengals, Pacheco had 66 yards on 14 attempts with what was a close three-point loss for the Chiefs. The seventh-round pick finished 15th in the NFL in rushing yards over expected, and now comfortable in his role, he could be a big difference-maker down the stretch. Usually, a running back prop is enticing for a game script that says his team is expected to be playing with a lead, but that wasn't the case in the last matchup and I expect a similar result here.
