NFL Picks: Divisional Round Best-Bet Parlay Goes Low For Giants-Eagles
A low-scoring NFC East showdown for Saturday night?
The divisional round is here, and the NFL playoffs are about to really kick into high gear. That means our picks for the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay have to be that much better.
Last week was another heartbreaker, though it did underscore the importance of getting the best number at the right time. We had the under in the Steelers-Ravens game, but we got the wrong end of it. The number was in the neighborhood of 43 earlier in the week, and then by Friday, it was down to 40.5. The total number of points scored in that game? A devastating 41.
But it’s on to the next one. Here’s the divisional round best-bet parlay based on consensus odds from the NESNBets live odds page.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48
Daniel Jones and the Giants offense looked very good last week in Minnesota. Here’s the thing, though: New York’s 31 points against the Vikings was just the second time all season they have scored at least 30 points in a game. The other time came against the Colts in a late-season snoozer. They don’t typically put up big numbers, and it’s likely that trend continues against Philly’s No. 6 defense by DVOA. The Eagles are as healthy as they’ve been just about all year on the defense, and the biggest issue — the run defense — has come together. Philly had a bottom-three run defense by EPA per play in the first half of the season and was No. 17 for the second half. There’s still room for improvement, but if the Eagles can score early, it could force New York to be more one-dimensional. And while the Giants’ defense just isn’t very good, we’re banking on a little bit of rust here from the Eagles. The offense hasn’t looked overly efficient since Jalen Hurts got hurt, and we can’t know for sure just how healthy he is. It’s going to be seasonably chilly Saturday night in Philly, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see it take a quarter or even two for the Eagles offense to come alive, and by then, the under might be the play.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46.5
On paper, this has all the makings of a defensive slugfest. The 49ers have the NFL’s No. 1 defense by both DVOA and EPA per play allowed. The Cowboys are No. 2 in both. By yards per play allowed, they are Nos. 4 and 8, respectively, and they’re both top-five defenses in points allowed. That has to be worth something, right? Obviously, both offenses have explosive potential, especially the Brock Purdy-led 49ers, who have scored at least 30 points in eight games of their 11-game winning streak. But this Dallas defense represents a significant uptick in competition.
Kansas City Chiefs MONEYLINE vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-477)
Is this a coward’s pick? Too square? Whatever. There are only four games to choose from, and the point spreads are sharper than ever, so we’re just trying to inflate our payout here with the top favorite of the weekend. These two teams met in Week 14, at Arrowhead, and the Chiefs jumped out to a 20-0 lead and cruised to a 27-17 win. Give the Jaguars credit for digging out of a 27-0 hole last week against the Chargers, but this veteran-laden KC team won’t suffer a similar fate. Andy Reid is one of the NFL’s best coaches coming off a bye week, and you have to imagine the Chiefs will be focused on exploiting one major weakness of the Jacksonville defense: its inability to stop tight ends. The Jaguars ranked 32nd in DVOA versus tight ends, and there might not be a better one than Travis Kelce. He “only” had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 14, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him double that this week. We could probably just lay the points, but the Jags have a high-powered offense that could get them within the number late, so moneyline it is.
Payout: 1 unit to win 3.41 units (+341)
