NFL Week 18 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Gets Desperate With 17-1 Payout
Can we make up for the entire season in one week? (Probably not)
There's no need to rehash the past. Seventeen weeks of NFL action are behind us, and Week 18 is here with one more chance to hit a regular-season NESNBets best-bet parlay.
Again, the past is the past, and we are onto Week 18. And if we were going to talk about the past, we'd probably lament an awful performance in this very space for most of the season, but we are full speed toward the final week where we're extending ourselves for a potentially massive payout.
Let's get right into the Week 18 best-bet parlay using consensus betting odds from the NESNBets live odds page.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears UNDER 43
NESN.com's Ricky Doyle brought this game up on this week's episode of "The Spread" podcast, and it makes a lot of sense. For starters, the Bears are starting Nathan Peterman, who is quite bad. Chicago has some other injuries on the offensive line that are going to make life even more difficult for Peterman. On the other side of things, just how confident are we that Minnesota is going to bounce back and light up the scoreboard? The Vikings should ultimately rest their starters, and that includes the likes of dynamic playmakers Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. One other thing to keep in mind: Of the Vikings' seven worst offensive performances this season (24 points or fewer), four of those came on grass. Chicago has a notoriously iffy grass track. It's also something you might want to file away for the playoffs if the Vikings have to go to Philadelphia.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers UNDER 49
These two teams played in Week 8 where they combined for just 24 points in a 15-9 Detroit win. Granted, the Packers got down inside the 10-yard line three times and came away with three total points, but it still marked the lowest-scoring Detroit game by far this season. Now, they're tasked with going outside in chilly Green Bay to play a game that might not ultimately mean anything to the Lions. This Packers defense is also playing better than it was in Week 8, and in Green Bay's last four games, the total points scored was under 49 in three of those. The Packers look like they have found something offensively, but that's a very relative term. And, if anything, they should have most of their success on the ground, which keeps the clock running.
(-4) Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have said a whole bunch this week about the idea of trying to stay sharp, be professional and play this game to win. We're not buying it, and neither are oddsmakers, apparently. Even with the Falcons laying the points, this feels like the sort of final-week game that looks funny on the schedule a few years from now: "Oh, that's right, I forgot the Falcons beat the Bucs 24-7 in Week 18 that year." The Bucs have failed to look impressive at any point this season, so it doesn't seem like a meaningless Week 18 game -- they are locked into the No. 4 seed and can't move -- will be the time for them to look like world-beaters again. The Bucs are a veteran-laden team with a 45-year-old quarterback. While some teams put an emphasis on staying sharp in that final week, Tampa Bay seems far more likely to focus on staying healthy, as that's its only slight chance at another deep run.
Miami Dolphins MONEYLINE (-176) over New York Jets
The Jets have run up the white flag in the form of Joe Flacco. Robert Saleh's cute analogies notwithstanding, we're not dealing with 2014 Flacco here. Saleh has his work cut out for him when it comes to motivating his team. Maybe we're overthinking it slightly, but not only do the Jets have nothing to play for, but they're also flying into Miami for a Saturday night before a game with nothing to play for. Could be a trickier curfew check than usual. Even if they're good boys, the Dolphins should find a way to beat them. Miami is still very much alive in the playoff race and can't get in without a win. Skylar Thompson is not a great quarterback, but he does get a full week of prep ahead of this one, so that should help. Miami finds a way to extend its season at least until the Bills-Patriots game ends.
Pittsburgh Steelers MONEYLINE (-141) over Cleveland Browns
Five legs to the parlay? Put it on the board! What do we have to lose at this point? Let's take the Steelers in a game they also have to have in order to keep any hopes of a playoff appearance alive. It would be shocking if Pittsburgh wasn't ready to go. Mike Tomlin has done some of his best work with this team that was left for dead at 2-6. This is a program-building game. Either the Steelers win and get some help to reach the playoffs, or they win and things don't fall their way, but they have some undeniable momentum entering the offseason. It would also be shocking to see Cleveland, which has had one of the weirder seasons in recent memory with the Deshaun Watson saga, come out firing here.
Payout: 1 unit to win 17.65
