Target Hayden Hurst and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the AFC Championship Game

With two of the top offenses in the NFL set to collide in Sunday’s AFC Championship, there’s definite value on the board to target player props from each side.

Specifically, two players are giving us ample reason to back some of their player props in this matchup, Hayden Hurst of the Cincinnati Bengals and Marquez Valdes-Scantling of the Kansas City Chiefs. 

On paper, these two might not be the most integral parts of their respective offenses, but our data indicates there’s value in looking at these player props. The numbers back up looking at these two, even if you’re drawn to the higher-skilled position players.

Hurst finished the regular season with 52 receptions for 414 yards, the second-highest totals of his five-year NFL career. In each of his last three games, two in the postseason, Hurst has recorded four or more receptions. His current reception prop on Sunday is set at 3.5, and Hurst has proven that he’s a valuable safety blanket for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. 

On the opposite side, Valdes-Scantling is a vastly different type of player and can stretch the field for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs wide receiver hasn’t been as impactful this year, which has seen him record no more than 28 receiving yards in any of his last six games. Still, he’s hauled in two or more receptions in three of the previous five games, along with two of their last three, which should lead you to the Over for his reception prop of 1.5. 

• Hayden Hurst has beaten the Over for receptions in 12 of 19 games (63%) since the start of the 2020 season.
• Hayden Hurst has beaten the Over for receptions in 9 of 13 games (69%) this season.
• Hayden Hurst is averaging 4.3 receptions per game over his last three games.
• Hayden Hurst is averaging 3.9 receptions per game this season.
• Hayden Hurst has been targeted five or more times in each of his last three games.
• Hayden Hurst has been targeted five or more times in three of his last five games.
• Hayden Hurst has been targeted five or more times in 57% (8/14) of his games this season.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been targeted three or more times in two of his last three games.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been targeted three or more times in three of his last five games.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been targeted three or more times in 71% (12/17) of games this season.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging two receptions per game over his last three games.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 1.8 receptions per game over his last five games.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 2.5 receptions per game this season.