It’s yet another season with national championship aspirations for the Houston Cougars under Kelvin Sampson after reaching the program’s first Final Four since 1984 two seasons ago.
Will they find themselves back at the Final Four with a chance to bring him the first national title in program history? We look at Houston’s odds of cutting down the nets in April and if they are worth backing in the National Championship market.
National Championship Movement (Open, Current)- Houston +2000 –> +600
- Purdue +3000 –> +800
- Alabama +2500 –> +900
- Kansas 9.0%
- Purdue 7.4%
- Houston 5.8%
The best part about Houston’s offense is their balance. Although Marcus Sasser is their primary scorer and shot-taker, the Cougs have all five starters averaging at least 9.2 points per game.
The lack of overreliance on one player for them to find success makes them a difficult task to crack for opposing defenses. Only Sasser ranks in KenPom’s top 500 of the nation’s qualifying players regarding the percentage of his team’s shots taken.
If there is a concern when dissecting Houston, it may come with their lack of frontcourt size. Five-star freshman Jarace Walker has been stellar as a stretch forward, but he stands at just 6’8″ as the team’s tallest player. Alabama’s 6’10” Noah Clowney exploited their lack of size in one of Houston’s two losses with a 16-point and 11-rebound performance.
In a season widely deemed the “Year of the Big,” plenty of paint mismatches could cause the Cougars some defensive fits come tournament time. That said, head coach Kelvin Sampson hangs his hat on the defensive end.
The Cougars rank first nationally in block percentage, fourth in opposing two-point percentage, and third in opposing three-point percentage. His pack-line defense does its best to keep the ball from the paint and force opponents to have a hot night from the perimeter.
Houston has all the ingredients you look for in an NCAA Tournament contender. An older backcourt, a cutthroat defense, and a head coach with Final Four experience.
The non-Power 6 argument feels weak since the Cougars were able to defeat top-15 KenPom teams in Virginia and Saint Mary’s during non-conference play. It’s not the best price in the world, but the Cougars should be the favorite to win the national championship in a season filled with uncertainty among the country’s elites.
