Is it Young, Stroud, or Richardson who Goes No. 1 in the NFL Draft?

Less than a week after quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson impressed on the Lucas Oil Stadium field at the NFL Scouting Combine, the Carolina Panthers made the bold move to trade up from the No. 9 overall pick to seize control of the 2023 NFL Draft with the No. 1 overall selection.No. 1 Pick Post Combine Odds @ FanDuel

• Bryce Young: -190
• C.J. Stroud: +350
• Anthony Richardson: +600
• Will Levis: +1400

The early analysis coming out of Indy was that Richardson was the big winner among the quarterbacks, Will Levis was approaching consensus fourth-best QB prospect status, and Bryce Young did enough by tipping the scales at over 200 pounds to maintain his standing as the favorite.

Stroud was impressive but not enough to move the needle. He went into the combine +350 to be the top pick and left with the same odds.

That was before the Chicago Bears shipped the first pick to franchise quarterback-desperate Carolina. The Panthers had tried former top-five picks Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.

At the same time, their head coach Frank Reich was given Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan to work with as a member of the Indianapolis Colts after he signed on to be Andrew Luck’s headman.  

It’s no surprise why Carolina and Reich were all in on getting the No. 1 overall pick.

According to reports, the Panthers like multiple quarterbacks and aren’t zeroed in on one passing prospect. By owning the top pick, Carolina opened up their options. â€œWe control it now,” a Panther source told the Charlotte Observer’s Scott Fowler.

They left the door open of trading back (to No. 2?) if they loved more than one of the quarterbacks to recoup assets. That’s according to ESPN, The Athletic, and Charlotte Observer.

None of that jives with the post-trade odds movement we saw over the weekend.

• C.J. Stroud: -300
• Bryce Young: +300
• Anthony Richardson: +450
• Will Levis: +2500

Stroud has leapfrogged Young as the odds-on favorite to be the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Ohio State product has gone from +350 to -300, while Young’s odds have significantly shifted from -190 to +300.

It feels like somebody knows something.

But do they?

Before you go too far down the “vegas knows” rabbit hole, let’s consider the reporting.

“Excited about this group of young QBs,” Reich wrote in a text to SI.com’s Albert Breed. “We think they all have strengths that make them unique and worthy of #1 pick. We have a little over a month to confirm which is the right one for our team.”

According to Fowler (Charlotte Observer), the team has “a couple guys they like.” He did not rule out the Panthers swapping picks with the Houston Texans, who own the No. 2 overall selection.

If you want to call this disinformation, that’s the point. Who knows anything right now? The Panthers may want people to think they’re focused on Stroud. That, too, could be a smokescreen.

Let’s not forget the timeline of Paolo Banchero’s odds movement leading up to the 2022 NBA Draft. After Banchero opened at +2600, his odds shortened to +170 and moved back to +400 until the morning of the draft when he became the odds-on favorite at -210.

So, in the end, they were right? Banchero was the first pick. Not so fast. Because by 6:30 p.m. ET, right before the start of the draft, Banchero was back to +420, with Jabari Smith the odds-on favorite.

The point is, there’s still a lot of time. Don’t rip up your Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson tickets just yet!