NCAA Tournament: Ranking 6-11 Upsets in March Madness

Since 2014, the six seed has fallen to the eleven seed in 15 of 28 matchups and three of four in 2022. History tells us that we should see at least two upsets, so here are our rankings of the likelihood of 6-11 upsets.4. #11 NC State Over #6 Creighton

The Blue Jays have had a very up-and-down year, but coming into the season as a top-ten team in the country and a potential national champion, they’ve shown flashes of such. As to their opponent NC State, I’m a little surprised they are in the tournament, let alone not having to go to Dayton to compete in the First Four. Clemson deserved a bid over them, in my eyes, as the Tigers won all three games against the Wolfpack by 14, 25, and 26 points. Creighton is much more experienced, battle-tested, and with revenge after an ugly loss to Xavier in the Big East tournament. I don’t think NC State can match Creighton’s length, so I picture the Blue Jays controlling the pace and the glass, ultimately winning by double digits.

TCU awaits the winner of Arizona State and Nevada, but I still picture TCU taking a game in the tournament before falling to Gonzaga in the Round of 32. I’ve watched Arizona State a few times this year and left unimpressed, while many didn’t think Nevada even deserved to make the tournament. The Sun Devils are projected to be TCU’s opponent, and I value TCU withstanding the gauntlet of the Big 12 this year to carry them over Arizona State.

Kentucky has been an interesting team all year that likely will see a lot of action based on name appeal alone. Still, I like their chances over Providence since I can see this team seeking revenge after being bounced by Saint Peter’s in the first round of last year’s tournament. However, I can’t overlook Ed Cooley’s Friars in the slightest. Providence doesn’t quit. They’re relentless, battle-tested, and extremely well-coached. They lack size, which could be an issue defending Oscar Tswiebwe, but I don’t see a scenario where this game isn’t within five points as the second half winds down. I lean toward Kentucky, but this should be an incredible game.

Side note, target scoring props on Providence’s leading scorer Bryce Hopkins who last year lacked playing time at Kentucky before transferring to Providence this year. He should have a rather large chip on his shoulder.

The only 6-11 I’m officially taking, for now, will be Iowa State falling to the winner of Pittsburgh or Mississippi State. To be frank, I don’t think Iowa State is very good at all. Since starting the season 13-2, the Cyclones went 6-11 and really haven’t given me much confidence in them in the tournament. I don’t see Iowa State being able to score at Pittsburgh’s pace in that potential matchup, and a game against Mississippi State might have a combined score of 105. Talking about Pittsburgh specifically, I would like their chances to overcome Xavier in the Round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16.