NHL Best Bets: Maple Leafs vs. Canucks Game Picks

by

Mar 4, 2023

Two Canadian teams on opposite ends of the spectrum and country will collide tonight, with the Toronto Maple Leafs visiting the Vancouver Canucks.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+172) Total: 6.5 (O-134, U+110)

The Maple Leafs were one of the NHL’s most active teams heading into the trade deadline, and they’re still trying to find the right looks in terms of overall team chemistry with the new players in the fold. Despite selling off some pieces, the Canucks don’t believe they’re headed for a complete rebuild, which actually led them to buy a piece for the future, which they believe will be a part of the solution. The Maple Leafs are listed as sizable road favorites in this matchup on the moneyline at -210, while the Canucks are priced at +172. 

Toronto enters this contest more positively, posting a 7-3 record over their past ten games. The same can’t be said for the Canucks, sitting at 4-5-1 over that same sample size. The Maple Leafs defeated Vancouver 3-2 back on November 12. 

Looking toward the projected goalie matchup, the Maple Leafs are expected to start Matt Murray, while the Canucks should continue turning to Thatcher Demko. Both starting goalies have dealt with injuries, which has seen Murray post an 11-5-2 record, paired with a .911 save percentage, while Demko is sitting at 4-11-2, along with a .888 save percentage. Demko might have more going for him in the future, but it’s hard to argue Murray isn’t in the better system and the better goaltender right now. 

The Canucks don’t pose a significant threat right now with the bodies they’re rolling out there, and the Maple Leafs should manage to put together a strong performance on Hockey Night in Canada. There’s no real value in the Maple Leafs’ moneyline price, but we’re not expecting this one to be a close result, meaning we’re content backing their puck line odds at +112. 

Best Bet: Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5 (+112) 

Goal scoring is undoubtedly a strength of both these clubs, which has each side sitting inside the top ten in the NHL in goals per game. Where the Maple Leafs have a sizable edge is on defense and in goal, which has seen them sit fourth in goals allowed per game, compared to the Canucks all the way down in 31st. Over the Maple Leafs’ past five games, they’ve seen seven or more goals scored in two of those contests, while the Canucks have seen that transpire in a pair of games too. Interestingly, the over 6.5 is juiced up to -134 here, meaning there’s an expectation that goals will be scored here tonight, which is also the side of the equation we find ourselves gravitating towards. 

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-134) 

Many talented Maple Leafs scorers warrant being targeted in this matchup, but when you look at some of their recent stretches of play, one player stands out. Mitch Marner has taken his game to another level this season, and even though this Maple Leafs team will only be judged on their playoff success, you have to give credit where credit is due, and he’s someone that continues to get better each year. Marner has tallied 11 points over the team’s previous five games and is priced at +194 to find the back of the net tonight, a value number to target. 

Best Prop: Mitch Marner to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+194) 

Thumbnail photo via Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

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