Should the Nuggets be the Western Conference Favorite?

The Denver Nuggets sit on top of the NBA’s Western Conference and will undoubtedly be a tough out for any team facing off with them in a seven-game series.

Nikola Jokic and company have continued to see their lead atop the West increase and boast the best home record in the league at 30-5. 

The NBA’s trade deadline certainly shook up the Western Conference landscape (hint: we’re looking at you, Phoenix). Despite Denver running away with the top seed, there doesn’t appear to be a consensus in NBA circles that they’re a juggernaut and should be considered the favorite to play for an NBA Championship. 

With that in mind, let’s look at the Nuggets’ current Western Conference and NBA title odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook and decipher if there’s value to be had. 

There have been some fluctuating odds out West lately regarding the overall favorite to win the conference. A recent ankle injury for Kevin Durant has dropped the Phoenix Suns from being a favorite,  giving the Nuggets the shortest odds at +270. The Suns still aren’t far behind at +300, but there are definitely some historical injury concerns surrounding some of Phoenix’s high-end talent.

It’s also difficult to count out the defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors, who’re getting healthy at the right time of year. They are notoriously dangerous in the postseason, even when they’ve had a lackluster regular season in 2022-23. 

When you think of the Denver Nuggets, you don’t really think of a team that’s been in the conversation for an NBA title, but that has most definitely changed in 2023. The front office went out in the offseason and really upgraded the defense, along with adding some strong shooters from beyond the arc, which the team was evidently lacking.

The Nuggets are loaded with star talent. Nikola Jokic is arguably the best player in the NBA and is the current odds-on favorite to win his third straight MVP award. His durability and extremely deep bag of tricks allow the Nuggets to spread the floor. He also does a tremendous job of elevating the players around him. Jamal Murray is healthy now and has shaken off the rust after missing all of last year with an injury. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have also taken big steps and are counted on as contributors at both ends of the floor. 

In addition to being the West favorites, the Nuggets also sit in a tie with the Suns for the third-shortest odds to win the NBA Championship at +600. It’s hard to say that Denver isn’t getting the respect they deserve because the oddsmakers are certainly giving it to them. Still, the public opinion surrounding Denver really isn’t all that high, which is somewhat puzzling with what they’re accomplishing. The team’s lack of overall postseason success with their core is likely the driving factor behind that, but we’re still very much bullish about the prospects of Denver capturing hardware in 2023.