The PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview & Picks: Homa, Cantlay, and Kuchar Look Good

Many of the prize pools on Tour have been beefed up this season, and none more so than the 2023 PLAYERS Championship, where a massive $25,000,000 will be doled out to those who make the cut with a cool $4.5 million awaiting the winner. So it’s no surprise that 43 of the top 50 in the official world golf ranking and 40 of the top 50 in the current FedEx Cup standings will compete at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

The PLAYERS will be hosted again at the iconic TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye masterpiece with water hazards on 17 of the 18 holes on the 7,275-yard Par 72 layout. This event has yielded winners of all shapes and sizes over the years, both in terms of world golf ranking and type of player, as a course with such high variance will.

TPC Sawgrass is a ball striker’s golf course and a place where experience and course history helps more so than most events. When computing stat models for the week, a smaller tidbit that jumped out to me was sand saves gained, as the past three champions in this event led the field for the week in that category.

Neither last year’s winner (Cameron Smith) nor runner-up (Anirban Lahiri) will be in the field as both have decided to move to the LIV Tour. As of writing, the forecast is showing some afternoon rain on Friday with clear skies and sunshine for the balance of the tournament.

Although he is making his first-ever start at TPC Sawgrass, Ben Griffin is a debutant I want to back to finish in the Top 10 (+1500). He has been a cut machine in his first full season on the PGA Tour, making the weekend in nine of his last ten events, and has shown he can excel in all aspects of the game when looking closer at his stats.

He has gained Off-The-Tee, and on-approach in seven of his last eight events, Around-The-Green in four straight events, and gains with his putter on Bermuda greens. He has T-21 and T-14 finishes to his name at the first two stops in the Florida Swing, and I like his chances to improve on those here this week.

In addition to a newbie on a Top 10 bet, I am backing veteran Matt Kuchar at +700 for the same prop. Kuch had a great showing in his last elevated event start, finishing T-8 at the Genesis, where he was near tops in the field Tee-to-Green (+12.6 strokes).

An excellent putter throughout his career, he has become more boom-or-bust with the flat stick, so I am more confident in him rolling the rock better at a place where he has years of experience. Kuchar ranks 20th in this field in Strokes Gained:Putting at TPC Sawgrass and fourth in Strokes Gained:Putting on all Bermuda greens over the last 50 rounds.

Two South Korean players I will be betting to finish in the Top 5, in addition to smaller outright positions, are Tom Kim (+4000 outright, +900 Top 5) and Sungjae Im (+3400 outright, +700 Top 5).

Kim has shown early success on crossover courses to TPC Sawgrass, and his elite Tee-to-Green play (10th in this field) should have him liking his way around this course. After an abysmal Saturday at the API, he showed just enough with his stellar Sunday round to get me on board at the PLAYERS.

Im’s irons have faltered a bit of late for his standards, but he remains an elite driver, which should set him up for a lot of 125-150 yard shots from the fairway at TPC Sawgrass, the approach bucket he excels the most at historically. He has made two of three cuts in his career in this event.

I am avoiding the very top of the outright betting market again this week, instead going with Max Homa (+2100) and Patrick Cantlay (+1600) to round out my bets.

Homa, one of the best putters on Tour, had his worst performance on the greens at last week’s API, which plummeted him to a T-14 finish even though he led the field tee to green. He picked up nearly eight strokes alone on approach, and this event should require that same precision with irons to be in contention.

If he can replicate that iron play, we should be confident that we will get a much better result on the greens than a week ago. Homa has done enough to convince backers he can close the door on Sunday with five wins, including at some of the most prestigious non-Majors. Winning a PLAYERS Championship is the logical next step for the seventh-ranked player.
           
Cantlay will be a popular play in both betting and DFS markets this week, but he is chalk I will gladly support. Cantlay hit his stride to end last season but was slow to get back going in 2023 with a lackluster T16-T26-MC for his first three events of the season.

Since then, he showed up with a third-place finish at the elevated Genesis Invitational and a fourth-place finish at last weekend’s API. He gained 10.2 strokes in those events off the tee, 6.4 on approach, and 6.2 around the greens. All that was missing was solid putting, and Cantlay is more than capable on the greens to catapult him to the winner’s circle.

Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook