UEFA Champions League Best Bets – Round of 16 Second Legs

With the UEFA Champions League in full swing, it is anyone’s tournament to win. Manchester City is the current favorite to win their first-ever CL at +200 at FanDuel, while Bayern Munich is close behind, sitting at +380. Defending champions Real Madrid are an enticing +650 to win it all, despite already having one leg in the next round. 

Now, we are treated with the second legs of the Round of 16. Both Chelsea and Tottenham return to London looking to reverse one-goal deficits. Benfica hosts Club Brugge with a commanding 2-0 lead, but the most exciting fixture will be in Munich. Bayern will face PSG after leaving Paris with a 1-0 lead.

Here are my best bets for this week’s matches.

The spiciest match on the slate will be between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain. PSG’s midfield is firing on all cylinders, and their defense is finally healthy.

Sure, they’ll miss Neymar for this tilt, but that might be a blessing in disguise. Neymar is known to take risks in the middle of the field, which could be detrimental at the Allianz Stadium. With the Brazilian not in the lineup, it also opens up more space for Kylian Mbappe to thrive in. Let’s not forget PSG is undefeated this season when Lionel Messi and Mbappe start.

Furthermore, Bayern will be without some key players on Wednesday. Lucas Hernandez, Leroy Sane, and Manuel Neuer are all injured, while Benjamin Pavard is suspended for the second leg. This will force manager Julian Nagelsmann to deploy four men at the back – which can be a death sentence against PSG. Messi and Mbappe are salivating at the thought of Joao Cancelo and Alphonso Davies taking up the flanks.

I typically wouldn’t bet against Bayern at home, as they haven’t lost in Allianz Arena once this season. Munich is also undefeated in the Champions League this year. However, PSG should be more respected here. Mbappe can create a goal at literally any moment, and Messi has torched the Allianz before (see the infamous execution of Jerome Boateng).

I would suggest taking them to qualify for the next round at +430. Down just one goal, they can turn things around, and if it gets to extra time, I would have to side with Messi and Mbappe to squeak one out. 

I’m backing Messi’s dream season to continue and taking PSG on the double chance at -110 while also taking them to qualify at +430. They should be able to take advantage of a weakened Bayern Munich.

Chelsea F.C. has been struggling for quite a while now. However, this is the perfect spot for them to turn it around against a team with a history of choking in the Champions League. 

Borussia Dortmund may have lost their best chance to advance as they only won by one goal in the last leg. Things get exponentially harder against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea has only allowed five goals in their previous ten matches at home in all competitions, recording five clean sheets in that timeframe. They haven’t lost at home in the CL for over two years.

To make things better for the Blues, Dortmund has historically suffered in London. They have lost five consecutive games in England’s capital and have not won both legs of a Champions League knockout tie since the 90s.

With Reece James and Raheem Sterling slated to return to the lineup, Chelsea can be confident in having enough quality to drag them to the Quarterfinals. They have enough experience to get it done and are finally starting to form an identity with all the new faces on the squad.

Take Chelsea to qualify at +126. Let’s not forget they won this competition just two years ago.

My last bet also takes place in London. AC Milan has made a point of improving their defense since the return from the break and is finally producing the necessary results. Four of their last five games have gone under this total.

Tottenham is also known to record many UNDERS and doesn’t have the quality to outscore their opponents. Led by defensive-minded Antonio Conte, this total has gone UNDER in all of their home games since before the World Cup.

Taking AC Milan to qualify at -150 also has decent value, as they are certainly the better team right now. They have won four of their last five games and will welcome a few faces back from injury just in time for the bout.