Tournament and Course Preview
With just under a month left until the season’s next major championship, the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta. The Mexico Open dates back to 1944 as the country’s national golf championship. Vidanta Vallarta will host the event again, and it will be played as a Par 71 at 7,456 yards. This Greg Norman design was built around the Ameca River, north of the destination hotspot Puerto Vallarta and South of Nayarit. With only one year of a sample size to build off, it is tough to say what stats will predict performance, but last year’s Off-The-Tee play was key as nine of the top 15 players on the final leaderboard ranked in the Top 10 in strokes gained off the tee.
As many of the game’s best players try to find some respite from a tiresome stretch in the 2023 PGA Tour schedule, we are left with a lackluster field for the 2023 Mexico Open. However, the world’s number one ranked player and defending champion, Jon Rahm, will be in the field as he searches for his fifth win in as many months. He comes with a short price tag to win outright at +260, so we will try other ways to find money this week, as that number is unplayable unless it is a peak Tiger Woods on my ticket.
The Picks
Hank Lebioda has made four of his last six cuts, highlighted with a T-21 finish at the Puerto Rico Open and a T-15 finish at AT&T Pebble Beach, both of which had weak fields like this tournament. The 29-year-old FSU grad also posted a T-29 finish at last year’s Mexico Open, where he gained 7.4 strokes putting over the four rounds. Usually, I’m not fond of backing repeat performances when it comes to putting, but on a surface as rare as Paspalum greens, I want someone with experience and a good feel on his first go-around on the course. Lebioda’s Top 10 price tag of +1200 will be a play for me this week, and I also have him on my First Round Leader card at +11000.
Rookie Akshay Bhatia has played well in his first full season on the PGA Tour, and I think waiting past the hype weeks with him (Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana) puts his backers in an excellent spot for a Top 10 prop (+800) and an Outright win bet (+11000). Bhatia’s odds at those tournaments were three to four times shorter than they are this week, and you aren’t seeing a much different strength of field. He finished second in Puerto Rico and has gained Off-the-Tee and On-Approach each week. Bhatia has not putt well this year, but in the limited events he played in with Strokes Gained data before the 2023 season, he grades out closer to average with the flat stick. This is a perfect buy-low spot for a talented young player.
I made it until late April before taking the plunge down a path I can never avoid, backing Emiliano Grillo (+1000 Top Five, +5000 Outright). Looking at his many close calls, most recently at last year’s Sanderson Farms, 3M Open, and John Deere classic, and one of these weeks, the chunked wedge or missed three-footer on Sunday will stay on course, giving the Argentinian his first victory in nearly eight years on the PGA Tour. Grillo is 15th in this field in Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee, 27th in Approach, and 22nd in Tee-to-Green. His recent form is a mixed bag (T-7 at the elevated RBC Heritage as the highlight), but he has gained strokes putting in his last three starts and gained putting in last year’s Mexico Open.
If Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee is the formula for success at Vidanta, then Taylor Pendrith (+4100) seems like an excellent final outright bet of the week. Although recent results have not been great (three missed cuts and no better finish than T-42 in his last seven starts), the upside with his driver play is too good to pass up, at this course, with this field. Pendrith was near the top of the tour Off-the-Tee from late last fall through early this winter and still ranks eighth in this field. His putting has let him down of late (losing strokes in five straight starts), but all those events took place on Bermuda greens, the only surface he has lost on in his short career. A trip to a course that fits an elite driver of the golf ball and a new putting surface could be precisely what is needed to get Pendrith out of his slump. I will back him with a Top Five (+800), First-Round Leader (+5000), and an Outright ticket.
Betting Card
(All prices from FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 10
Hank Lebioda (+1200)
Akshay Bhatia (+800)
Top 5
Emiliano Grillo (+1000)
Taylor Pendrith (+800)
Outright Win
Akshay Bhatia (+11000)
Emiliano Grillo (+5000)
Taylor Pendrith (+4100)
First Round Leader
Hank Lebioda (+11000)
Luke List (+7000)
Taylor Pendrith (+5000)
