The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Dover Motor Speedway for the Würth 400 in the eleventh race of the season on Monday, after the original Sunday start time was postponed due to rain. The green flag will be waved at 12 p.m. EST.
Saturday morning hosted the first track action with Cup practice and qualifying. Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson and William Byron made up the top three fastest drivers. The best 10 consecutive lap averages from practice saw the Xfinity Series regular and Chevy driver Josh Berry who will be filling in for Alex Bowman who is out with injury for the next 3-4 weeks at the top of the charts. This isn’t too much of a surprise, as Berry is no stranger to the Cup cars. He subbed in for Chase Elliott earlier this season when Elliott was out for six races due to a fractured tibia. The drivers following Berry were Denny Hamlin, Daniel Suarez and William Byron.
Qualifying was set to take place after the practice session, but was canceled due to inclement weather. The starting lineup has been decided by the metric data system. The metrics include: current points standings, finish from the last race and the drivers fastest lap from the previous week.
Your official top 10 starters in order of position are: Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowksi, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Chase Elliott.
Other notable drivers in the field are: Kevin Harvick 12th, Denny Hamlin 13th, Martin Truex Jr. 17th, Kyle Larson 18th, Joey Logano 26th and Austin Dillon will round out the rest starting 36th after a spin in practice caused him to switch to a backup car.
After analyzing all of that data and more, here are my best bets for this weekend’s racing action from Dover Motor Speedway!
OUTRIGHT WINNERS:
Kyle Larson started out as the favorite to win this one at 5-1 and he remains the same after practice. Larson has 11 top ten finishes in the last 14 races at this track, including 1 victory in 2019 and almost 900 laps led in that span. After he has won at two short tracks already, at Richmond and Martinsville he’s promising to get back to victory lane at Dover.
Chase Elliott is 7-1 to get his first win of the season this week. If he does, it would be an impressive feat as it’s just his third race back from injury. Although, he hasn’t slowed down much, finishing 10th in his first race back and 12th last week after winning stage 1 and leading 18 laps at Talladega. Chase having 9 top fives in the last 12 races here tells me all I need to know.
Denny Hamlin has been on a hot streak lately after a rough start to the season. He’s been in position to win in the last two weeks, notching his first top 5 at Martinsville. In his last five Dover races, he has three top tens including a victory in 2020, along with a total of 402 laps led. Look for Hamlin to make his way towards the front in Stage 1 as he’s 8-1 to win it.
Brad Keselowksi is my favorite value play of the entire weekend. Sitting at 20-1 to win, at a track where he has gotten stage points in the last nine races, plus a win there back in 2012. What stands out to me the most was him being the fastest in practice. With qualifying canceled and the slick racetrack, track position is going to be at an all time high. Brad rolls off fourth and he won’t waste any time charging to the lead. I think he snaps his 72 race winless streak in this one.
KEEP IN MIND:
Kyle Busch won last week and is starting on the pole this week, at 16-1 to win again at Dover those are great odds right? Wrong! Don’t be fooled by this one, the RCR short track program has been terrible to start this season. Both Busch and his teammate Austin Dillon only have one top 10 on short tracks this season. I’d wait for that team to have a good run before betting on either of them at non-superspeedways.
Martin Truex Jr. was on my list of outright winners before getting replaced by Brad Keselowski after practice. He’s 9-1 to get back to victory lane, but for this week I see his value coming from live bets. At a track where he has four top 5 finishes in the last six races, including one win, he is definitely poised for a great run. If I see MTJ crack the top 5 by the end of Stage 1, he’s a driver that I’l be betting on to win it.
PROPS:
Chase Elliott has an average finish of 9.8 at Dover, his most career top tens have come from this track and he needs a win to make the playoffs. The 9 team will look to capitalize and win this weekend, even if he doesn’t win I expect a top 3 finish at +175 to be a lock.
Brad Keselowski showed the speed in practice and has a great starting spot for this one. He’s had a great performance on tracks under 1.5 miles so far this season to have plus value of +105 is a nice play.
Josh Berry has a 1.6 average finish at Dover in the Xfinity Series. He accels on short tracks and we already know he is capable of running strong in the cup cars. He finished 10th at Phoenix and 2nd at Richmond while driving the 9 for Chase Elliott. Berry to get a top 10 at +160 is a safe and valuable choice.
For more NASCAR analysis and betting insight you can follow me on social media @tinopattigno.
