Two of the Eastern Conference’s best stand toe-to-toe on Wednesday night as the New York Rangers host the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Already guaranteed a postseason berth, the Rangers are clinging to their fading division title aspirations. A win against the struggling Lightning will keep them in the Metropolitan Division conversation, but it may be too little too late for the Broadway Blueshirts.
Lightning @ Rangers Game Information- Location: Madison Square Garden | New York, NY
- Time: 7:30 pm ET | TV: TNT
New York gets a ton of credit for its trade deadline acquisitions. The team added two of the most coveted players available, acquiring Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane. Those additions have elevated the Rangers’ scoring, but a disconnect is forming between production and output, putting New York at risk of regression.
Since March 3, the Rangers have put together the ninth-worst expected goals-for percentage at 45.7%, a departure from their already sub-optimal mark of 49.1%.
More concerning, the Original Six franchise has seen a surprising jump in scoring despite the alarming decrease in their metrics. Over that same span, the Rangers have the fourth-best mark in the NHL at 60.9%. As expected, that has forced their PDO above sustainable levels, coming in at 1.044 and putting New York on an inevitable reckoning with regression.
Lightning @ Rangers Odds on FanDuel- Spread: Lightning +1.5 (-255) | Rangers -1.5 (+205)
- Moneyline: Lightning -102 | Rangers -118
- Total: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+106)
Although they’ve been less consistent, the Bolts are improving their form over their past couple of outings. We’ve seen Tampa’s offense of old, and that upward trend should continue at Madison Square Garden.
The Lightning have out-chanced their opponents in scoring opportunities in two straight by a combined 67-43 margin. Likewise, high-danger chances are flowing more naturally. The three-time defending Eastern Conference Champions have put together an even more impressive 63.8% high-danger chance rating by out-chancing their opponents 30-17.
That trend will likely continue against a Rangers squad allowing an average of 31.0 scoring and 15.3 quality chances over their last three.
Lightning @ Rangers Picks- Lightning -102
- Brayden Point Any Time Goal Scorer +145
Lightning forward Brayden Point is closing in on his first career 50-goal season. The former third-round pick has recorded four goals over his previous five contests to move within two of the elusive benchmark. We’re betting Point continues that climb on Wednesday night.
Analytically, Point rates as one of the best players on the Lightning. He ranks second on the team in expected goals-for-percentage, thanks partly to his elite production metrics. Point leads the forward corps in scoring and high-danger chances at 731 and 234, respectively.
The Rangers have abandoned any semblance of defensive zone coverage. That benefits Point in his quest for 50 and the Lightning, leaving an edge in backing both on Wednesday night.
