Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets Series Betting Preview & Picks

After 82 hard-fought games, the Vegas Golden Knights claimed their second Western Conference title, setting a franchise record for most points in a season. Of course, it didn’t come easily for the Knights, who needed a victory in their regular season finale to clinch the distinctions. 

They will be looking to carry that momentum in their Wild Card matchup against the Winnipeg Jets, who needed every bounce to go their way to hang onto their postseason berth. Nevertheless, the Jets turned on their afterburners, winning five of their past seven games to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs after a brief one-year hiatus.

Winnipeg knows what it takes to play desperate hockey, and that could give them a leg up on the Golden Knights.

• Game 1: VGK vs. WPG – April 18 @ 9:30 pm ET
• Game 2: VGK vs. WPG – April 20 @ 10 pm ET
• Game 3: WPG vs. VGK – April 22 @ 4 pm ET
• Game 4: WPG vs. VGK – April 24 @ 9:30 pm ET
• *Game 5: VGK vs. WPG – April 27 @ TBD
• *Game 6: WPG vs. VGK – April 29 @ TBD
• *Game 7: VGK vs. WPG – May 1 @ TBD 

There is a rift between the Golden Knights’ analytics and their actual outcomes. Vegas ended the season with the fifth-best points percentage and fourth-most wins, but they barely snuck into the league’s top half in expected goals-for rate. The Knights finished 16th with a modest 50.9% rating.

Below-average Corsi and scoring chance ratings negatively impacted their standing. The Golden Knights finished 11th from the bottom in both categories, posting a 48.2% Corsi percentage and 48.6% scoring chance rating. 

Somehow, though, Vegas got worse to end the season. The Knights were outplayed in 13 of their last 22 games, posting an atrocious 45.4% expected goals-for rating, seventh-worst among NHL teams over that stretch. Still, Vegas put together the third-best winning percentage while accumulating the most inflated PDO in the NHL. That puts them on a collision course with regression at the most inopportune time.

• Series Price: Golden Knights -166 | Jets +138
• Western Conference Odds: Golden Knights +450 | Jets +1200
• Stanley Cup Odds: Golden Knights +1200 | Jets +3500

The Jets’ hot streak comes from a much more sustainable place. Down the stretch, Winnipeg outplayed its opponents in seven of their past ten, with a cumulative 57.8% expected goals-for rating. That’s above their season-long total of 51.6%, positioning them for success early this postseason. 

That progression is punctuated with some genuinely dominant efforts. The Jets crossed the 70.0% game score threshold in three of those contests, going north of 59.7% in six of their seven above-average performances. We’ve seen a return of their high-octane offense, with Winnipeg attempting 13 or more high-danger chances in half of those games. 

But as usual, Connor Hellebuyck is the foundation of the team’s success. The former Vezina Trophy winner ended the year with an outstanding 92.0% save percentage and 31.1 goals saved above average. More importantly, he’s finding his rhythm at a crucial time for the Jets, stopping 94.9% of shots over his past six starts.

• Jets +138
• Total Series Games: 6 (+200)

Analytically, these teams are traveling in very different directions. Winnipeg turned its season around in the waning moments, securing a playoff berth on the strength of goaltending and improved offensive performances. Conversely, the Golden Knights secured a division banner while outplaying their disastrous metrics. 

We’re playing the implied advantage and backing the underdog Jets team that has superior metrics to the higher-seeded Golden Knights. Winnipeg’s best chance at advancing to the next round is finishing the Knights in six.